The Telangana By-Elections Results will be out on 1 June.

17 MLAs and Four Lok Sabha MPs will be elected.

These Results will influence Congress President Sonia’s Decision-Making on the issue of creating a separate State for Telangana or Keeping Andhra Pradesh united, as it is!

VELMA TRS

The TRS is campaigning on the “Patriotic Theme of Achieving a Separate State for the Telangana Region”.

The TRS is requesting voters to treat these By-Elections as a Referendum on Telangana.

If the TRS wins most of these Seats then the Telangana Issue will continue to terrorise the Congress State Government, threatening to disturb its continuation in power after the 2009 General Elections.

The TRS is targeting Chief Minister YSR since YSR is opposed to the creation of Telangana.

The TRS credibility is highly negative because of the rampant corrupt image of the TRS Chief Chandrasekhara Rao.

The TRS Chief also unashamedly indulges in Nepotism and excessive Velma Casteism.

The Velma Caste has less than One Percent of the Voters.

The TRS Chief being a Velma imposes Velmas everywhere.

This is causing a consolidation of other castes against the Velma-TRS.

The Telangana Rashtra Samiti has deteriorated in to a VELMA-TRS!

KAMMA-TDP

The TDP is campaigning on the Theme of “Corrupt Congress Government” and “TRS has Cheated Telangana”.

Chandrababu Naidu a Kamma from Rayalseema is perceived to be as big an Enemy of Telangana as Chief Minister YSR. Both are opposed to Telangana. The voter vibes in Telangana are against both the TDP and the Congress.

If separated from the Telangana issue, the TDP has a base of committed Backward Votes in Telangana.

Telangana voters are however obsessed by Telangana.

Naidu has changed gear by stating that he is not opposed to Telangana. The TDP blames the Congress for being anti-Telangana and condemns the TRS for partnering with the Congress in cheating Telangana.

The TDP Credibility is almost absent.

Naidu as CM was perceived to be Pro-Rich and a Kamma Casteist.

The Naidu TDP Corruption in Government is still fresh in the minds of the Voters. Naidu and the TDP are therefore ridiculed by the voters when they talk against Congress Corruption.

The Telugu Desam Party under Naidu has deteriorated in to a Kamma Desam Party and is perceived as a Kamma-TDP!

CHRISTIAN CONGRESS

The Congress Party is promising Telangana but says that the process of creation of Telangana is being supervised by Congress President Sonia and until then every one in Telangana must keep voting for the Congress.

The Congress Ministers have proved to be as corrupt as the TDP Ministers.

The Congress Party is also criticised of having deteriorated in to a Christian Congress because of Congress President Sonia, who is an Italian Christian, of being excessively fond of Christians and filling key Congress Positions with Christians.

Mass Leader Ysr Increases Popularity

Chief Minister YSR is giving Rice at Rs 2 per kg along with subsidised pulses and cooking oil. YSR is confident that the Poor and Lower Middle Classes comprising of 40% of the Voters will vote for the Congress because of the Low-Cost Food being given by the Government. Will Food Overwhelm Telangana Patriotism? YSR has fielded carefully selected candidates.

YSR has united the entire Congress Organisation to mobilise every available vote.

The opposition especially the TDP keeps on Congress Corruption but does not impress the voters. On the issue of “Corruption in Governance”the voters do not find any difference between the TDP and the Congress.

The YSR Governance is however highly popular because of the successful implementation of a Governance Agenda focused on Agriculture, Irrigation, Drinking Water, Power, Rural-Urban Infrastructure, subsidised food, old-age pensions and other welfare measures.

This has resulted in a huge voter appreciation for YSR.

YSR is today India’s most effective “Mass Leader in Governance”.

Most Mass Leaders lose Mass support after being in Power.

YSR is increasing his Mass Support with every passing day in Government.

This is a rare and historic achievement by YSR.

TAILPIECE

The TRS hopes to win almost all the Assembly Seats and all the Four Lok Sabha Seats.

The TDP hopes to win 5 of the 17 Telangana Assembly seats.

The Congress expects to win 8 of the 17 Telangana Assembly Seats.

The Telangana Voters have a clear choice:

Telangana Patriotism OR Pro-Poor,Farmers Governance of YSR!

FINISHLINE

If the Voters vote for the YSR Governance Agenda then the TRS will have to close shop after these By-Elections.

If in these By-Polls, the Voters Vote for Telangana Patriotism, then Congress President Sonia might create Telangana before the 2009 Lok Sabha Polls, to win the 17 Telangana Lok Sabha Seats!

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TELANGANA BY-POLL RESULTS WILL INFLUENCE SONIA

18 MLA Constituencies and 4 Lok Sabha Constituencies in the Telangana Region will have By-Elections in May.

The Telangana Rashtra Samiti MLAs and MPs had resigned their seats to focus voter attention on their frustration at the Sonia Congress not declaring Telangana as a separate State.

These By-Elections will be a Referendum on creation of a separate state of Telangana.

ANTI-TELANGANA PARTY

Almost all the Parties are opposed to splitting Andhra Pradesh to create Telangana.

The Telugu Desam Party dominated by Kamma Castemen from Andhra Region is opposed to the creation of Telangana.

The BJP dominated by Kamma and Brahmin Castemen from Andhra Region is opposed to the creation of Telangana. Though hypocritically the BJP loud mouths mouth noises that if the Congress moves a Bill to create Telangana then the BJP would support it in Parliament.

The CPM-CPI dominated by Kamma Castemen from Andhra Region are opposed to the creation of Telangana..

The Congress Party Government headed by Y. S.Rajasekhara Reddy is split.
The Telangana Region chaps want a separate State.

However YSR is opposed to the splitting of the State since he believes that as small states the relevance of Telugus in National Politics will vanish.

BY-POLLS STRATEGY

The TRS hopes to win most of the 18 MLA seats and 4 Lok Sabha Seats by inciting campaign
Against all those opposed to Telangana.

The TDP will contest the Polls hoping to win the Anti-YSR Votes and the Ati-TRS Votes to win a few seats and thus regain its lost relevance in Telangana!

The BJP will contest but will be wiped out because the BJP has no credibility in Andhra Pradesh!
The Telangana Congressmen scared of a wipe-out have advised Congress President Sonia to not to field any candidate in the By-Elections.

YSR wants to test the Telangana voters’ mood, so that necessary corrections and adequate preparations could be made by the Sonia Congress for the General Elections due in 2009.

BY-ELECTIONS IMPLICATIONS

If the TRS wins 15 of the 18 MLA Seats then it implies that the voters overwhelmingly want Telangana and they trust only the TRS to achieve it.

If the TRS wins more than half, 10 MLAS, then it implies that the Voters want Telangana but have lost faith in the TRS.

If the TRS wins less than 8 MLAs then it is clear that voters have rejected the TRS and in the 2009 Elections the TRS will be wiped out.

The Telangana issue will then dominate voters attitude only during the 2009 Elections and not now.

CHANDRABABU SURVIVAL TEST

Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party is going through a tough time.

The NTR Family is grabbing most space within the TDP.
The NTR Son is getting ready to Topple Naidu.

The Telangana Unit wants to break away with Devender Goud as the Telangana TDP President.
The Coastal Andhra TDP Leaders want to desert en mass and join Chiranjeevi’s yet un-named Party.
The Rayalseema TDP Leaders are all in touch with YSR to quit the TDP and join the Congress Party.

YSR Governmental Agenda is popular with the Voters. Thus every TDP effort to rouse voters against YSR is failing.
In these Telangana By Elections if the TDP performs well, only then, will Naidu survive a Topple Attempt by the NTR Family.
If the TDP is wiped out in the By-Elections then the TDP will split to create a new leadership.

It is Life or Death Time for Chandrababu Naidu!

YSR AGENDA REALITY CHECK

YSR is the first Chief Minister of India who has been strong on initiating action on almost all Promises made during the Run-Up to Power.

The Popular Governmental Agenda initiated by the YSR Government especially the Rs 2 per Kg of Rice will influence vote attitude of the poor in Telangana too.

YSR Agenda will thus be subject to a Reality Check in these Telangana By-Elections!

Sonia will take a decision on creation of a separate State of Telangana after the By-Elections Results explain the voters’ Signals!

TAILPIECE

YSR is the only Chief Minister who has retained his Mass Base even after being in Power for 4 Years.

YSR should therefore have no major hurdle in getting the Sonia Congress to retain the Government in the State in the 2009 Elections.

Irrespective of what happens in the Telangana By-Polls, YSR will continue to be the Chief Minister, to lead the Sonia Congress to victory in Andhra Pradesh

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