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SONIA-JAGAN CRISIS
The Process of the parting of ways of the Sonia Gandhi led Indian National congress and the Kadapa Lok Sabha MP Y.S.Jaganmohan Reddy began on 3 Spetember 2009, when Sonia dis not install the YSR Son as the Chief Minister.
The Actual Split between Sonia and Jagan took place on 29 June 2010 .
In a Private Meeting to Resolve the "Odarpu Yatra" Crisis, at Sonia’s Residence, Jagan abruptly got up during the Meeting and walked out of the Room, followed by his Mother and Sister.
Sonia and Jagan have NOT met after that Incident.
Any Party Boss would have expelled a Person who abruptly walked out of the Room. But Sonia demonstrated extraordinary restraint and waited patiently.
CHIEF MINISTER
Sonia never had the intention to make Jagan the Chief Minister.
Sonia made a sure disaster called Rosaiah as the Chief Minister after YSR died.
Sonia has Now made a YSR Loyalist Kiran as the Chief Minister after Rosaiah bombed the Congress Party prospects.
Jagan has Now, probably realised that he would never become the Chief Minister in the Sonia Congress.
Jagan probably assumes that he can become Chief Minister ONLY by mobilising the Masses and winning the next Assembly Elections.
PARTING METHODOLOGY
Sonia is waiting for Jagan to surrender by accepting any other position other than Chief Minister, or to leave the Congress Party.
Jagan is waiting for Sonia to either make him Chief Minister or Expel him from the Party.
It will be convenient for Sonia if Jagan leaves the Party.
It will be advantageous for Jagan if Sonia expels him, because he can seek the sympathy of the Voters.
ANTI-INDIRA
The Anti-Indira Elements who have entered the Congress Party and cornered Positions in the Central cabinet, AICC, State Legislature, Parliament and State Cabinet have been consistently screaming in the Media against Jagan to increase the Divide between Sonia and Jagan.
The Anti-Indira Elements in the Congress Party are using Jagan bashing, to get High Positions in the Government, Party, Legislature and Parliament from Sonia. A routine political Trick indeed!
Janata Dal defector Jaipal asked in Parlaiment for the hanging of Rajiv in the Bofors Scam, abuses Jagan to please Sonia.
Telugu Desam defector Renuka Chowdhry mouthed abuses at Indira, Rajiv, Sonia attacks Jagan to get a Position from Sonia.
Telugu Desam Defectors NTR Daughter and her husband attack Jagan to increase their Power share.
10 MPs who defected to Congress Party keep abusing Jagan to please Sonia.
20 MLAS and MLCs who had defected to Congress Party keep screaming at Jagan, to make it feel like Music for Sonia's ears.
The Anti-Indira Elements feel that the expulsion of Jagan would create a crisis for the Congress Party and Sonia would be forced, to give them a Bigger Cake, to mouth bigger abuses against Jagan.
JAIPAL CONSPIRACY
Most Corrupt Urban Development Minister Jaipal Reddy lobbied feverishly to Repalce Rosaiah. Bought MPs, MLAs and Media to pressurise Sonia.
Jaipal feels frustrated at not becoming Chief Minister.
Jaipal feels that the CBI is Now closing in on him for amassing more than 10,000 crores in the Commonwealth Games Scam in addition to the 10,000 Crores he has made by partnering with Property Developers and Real estate Brokers.
Jaipal is scared that he will be dropped from the Cabinet as happened with DMK Raja.
Jaipal is therefore trying to save his Ministership by trying to please Sonia by abusing Jagan.
Jaipal Conspiracy is that, the expelling of Jagan would create a crisis for the State Government, causing the change of the Reddy Chief Minister.
Jaipal hopes that Sonia would then install him as the Chief Minister.
Jaipal is implementing his Conspiracy to Destroy the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh, to enhance his Chief Ministerial Prospects.
RAJYA SABHA TYPES
Many in the Political System who have no votes, no roots and no credibility are brought to the Rajya Sabha and Legislative Council because they are alaways used by the Leadership to destroy, humiliate and marginalise those with a mass base, so that the Leadership is never questioned on corruption and Patriotic Issues.
The BJP, the Congress Party, the Communists and Every Regional Party has its own set of Dirty Dozen Rootless, Corrupt, National-State Capital based Power Brokers.
It is these Rajya Sabha Type Chaps who actually Boss over the Organisation and the Government in each Party.
Andhra Pradesh too has these Rootless Chaps in Positions.
They have been trying to pulverize Jagan by humiliating him in the Media. They are doing it because they believe that they would be rewarded by Sonia for abusing Jagan.
TELUGU DESAM MEDIA CONSPIRACY
The Anti-Sonia Activists in the Media, especially the "Loyal to Telugu Desam" Newspapers-TV too has been over the last One Year spinning fiery yarns to force Sonia to throw out Jagan from the Congress Party.
VOTE PERCENTAGE REALITY CHECK
The Congress Party has 40% of the Votes, if it stays united and gives a Good Government.
The Telugu Desam Party has 30% of the Votes.
The TDP cannot defeat the united Congress Party, led by the Reddys.
CHANDRABABU CONSPIRACY
The Chandrababu Naidu Political-Electoral Logic is Simple.
If Jagan is expelled from the Congress Party, then Jagan will field candidates in all the 294 Assembly Constituencies and 42 Lok Sabha Constituencies.
If Jagan and the Sonia Congress fallout, to field separate Candidates in all the Constituencies, then the Congress Party Votes will fall below 25%.
If there is a Jagan Wave, then Jagan will swallow votes from both the Congress Party and th Telugu Desam to get 35% % of the Votes, to win the majority of the seats to capture the State Government.
Chandrababu Naidu is sure that there will be No Jagan Wave, but the Congress Party Votes will be evenly split between the Sonia Congress and the Jagan Congress.
The Congress Party won in Maharashtra because Raj Thackeray Split the Anti-Congress Votes.
The Congress Party-DMK Alliance won in Tamilnadu because of Actor Vijayakanth split the Anti-DMK Votes.
TDP Naidu wants Sonia to make a Raj Thackeray and Vijaykanth out of Jagan to defeat the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh.
Jagan’s breakaway Congress, at worst, will surely get a minimum of 15% Votes in each Constituency.
In the Telangana Region, outside the Hyderabad Region, both the Telugu Desam Party and the Congress Party will lose miserably in all the 94 Assembly Seats and 12 Lok Sabha Seats.
Most of the Seats in the Telangana Region will be won by a New Regional Party, that would be floated in 2011, in the Telangana Region.
The Telugu Desam with just 30% of the Votes, will win literally almost 90% of the 200 Assembly Seats and 30 Lok Sabha Seats in the Andhra, Rayalaseema and Hyderabad Regions.
If Sonia Congress and Jagan Congress split the Congress Party Votes, then the Telugu Desam Party will definitely win more than the 148 Assembly Seats to get a Majority in the 294 MLAs Assembly to easily capture the State Government.
The Chandrababu Naidu manipulated Media is therefore urging the Sonia Congress to Split the Party by expelling Jagan from the Congress Party.
If the Congress Party remains united, then the Telugu Desam cannot ever capture the State Government.
The Anti-Congress Elements in Politics and the Media are therefore pushing Sonia and Jagan to split the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh.
JAGAN MEDIA
Jagan owns a Newspaper and TV Channel which he has inherited from his father YSR.
The entire Telugu Media is owned by the Kamma Caste and the Telugu Desam Lobby.
There was No Congress Voice in the Media to fight the Telugu Desam-Kamma Media.
YSR felt that there was the need for a Media that would fight the Kamma-Telugu Desam Media.
YSR requested and literally forced Rajiv Loyalist Priyadarshini Ram who is an Advertising Genius, to give up his Business and to create the SAKSHI Newspaper and Television.
YSR thus launched the "Congress Voice" Telugu Newspaper and a Telugu TV Channel named SAKSHI (WITNESS).
Priyadarshini Ram has created a Record by fulfilling the Congress Party and YSR's desire to have a More Popular than the Telugu Desam-Kamma Media, by making a Huge Success of SAKSHI Newspaper and TV.
SAKSHI Newspaper and TV have a complete sway on the Anti-Telugu Desam Voters and thus have proved to be biggest Vote Mobiliser for the Congress Party.
SAKSHI
SAKSHI published from 24 Towns with Printing Facilities in 24 Places, sells 13.75 Lakhs of Newspapers everyday.
SAKSHI is immensely popular with the families in every village-locality, across Andhra Pradesh, because of the India's Best Family Edition Daily accompanying the Main Newspaper.
The Family Edition has the most creative Editor of Andhra Pradesh Priyadarshini Ram.
The Main Political newspaper is controlled by Ramkrishna Reddy who directs the Political Content.
SAKSHI Television has Priyadarshini Ram as the CEO who is perceived to be the best creative genius in the Electronic Media in Andhra Pradesh.
SAKSHI Television has the Editorial Chief in Ramakrishna Reddy who decides on the Political Content on Television and the Newspaper.
SAKSHI created by YSR is a Big Success in Andhra Pradesh because of the Team of dedicated Professionals who are not Members of any Political Party.
BLASPHEMY
SAKSHI Television and Newspaper carried a News Analysis in its 9 PM Current Affairs Programme. It highlighted the "Collected Items" of Decades of Criticism against Sonia by Opposition Leaders and Print Media across the Country.
The Truth is that Jagan had no knowledge of the Report until it was Telecasted.
The Newspaper and TV later Edited the Programme, Re-Scripted it to present Sonia in a favourable style.
Congressmen believe otherwise. They feel that Jagan deliberately did it to pressurise Sonia.
The Congress Party was angered by the "Blasphemy" by the Congress MP owned Newspaper and TV Channel.
The Congress Partypersons are now asking for Expelling Jagan for the SAKSHI Newspaper and TV Report.
Sonia will Now decide whether Jagan must be expelled because with or without his knowledge his Newspaper and TV carried a Blasphemous Report hurting Sonia.
YSR-CONGRESS SUCCESS
The SAKSHI Campaign for the Congress Party, YSR, Sonia and Rahul is responsible for Psyching the Telugu Voters to massively Vote for the Congress Party in the 2009 Assembly and Lok Sabha Elections.
If SAKSHI was not created,` then the Congress Party which won 157 of the 294 Assembly seats in the 2009 Elections, would have fallen to 100 MLAs to lose the Government to the Telugu Desam Party.
UNRESTRAINED
Sonia can also take the attitude that she might not be bothered about losing the State Government in the next Elections.
There are 30 States. Win Some. Lose Some. So what the Heck!
Sonia can therefore not be restrained by the prospect of losing the State Government, in the event of the Congress Party Splitting with Jagan being expelled to form a Break Away Party.
CENTRAL GOVT
There is however a Huge Problem .
Sonia got the Central government in 2004 and 2009 because of the magnificient victories by YSR in Andhra Pradesh.
The Victory in Tamilnadu added to the Andhra Pradesh Victory in 2004.
The Victories in Maharashtra , Tamilnadu, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Kerala combined with the victory in Andhra Pradesh in 2009 to win the Central Government.
The Congress Party will do horribly in the next Lok Sabha Elections in Tamilnadu, Maharashtra , Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, as badly as in Bihar .
Sonia can win the Central Government after the next Lok Sabha Elections, ONLY if the Congress Party wins more than 30 of the 42 Lok Sabha Seats in Andhra Pradesh.
If Sonia Loses Andhra Pradesh then Sonia will definitely Lose the Central Government.
SONIA WOOS VOTE BASE
Sonia has installed a new Chief Minister from the Reddy Community.
The Reddys are the natural and popular Leaders of the Congress Vote Base in Andhra Pradesh.
The Congress Party vote base in Andhra Pradesh is Reddys-Dalits-Minorities, which is 40% of the Total Votes in the State.
This Vote Base has completely migrated to Jagan after YSR Death.
Sonia can regain this Vote Base, Only if a Competent Reddy heads the Government-Party Infrastructure and Reddy Leaders in Every District strengthen the Reddy Chief Minister and together if they succeed in mobilising the Reddy-Dalit-Minority Vote Base.
If the Sonia pick of the new Reddy Chief Minister Fails then Sonia wll have to get a better Reddy as the Chief Minister, otherwise there will be a Jagan wave in the State.
Sonia has to Now decide, as to whether the new Reddy Chief Minister Experiment, will succeed with Jagan being kept in the Party or by Expelling Jagan from the Party.
INDIA WATCHING SONIA
India is eagerly watching Sonia's handling of the Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh.
If the National Opposition and Regional Leaders in Every State, feel that Sonia is Losing Andhra Pradesh, then they will launch a major offensive against Sonia in Every State.
FINISHLINE
For Everyone wanting to be the Prime Minister, after the next Lok Sabha Elections, the Electoral Mantra is clear:
The Key to the Office of the Prime Minister is MADE only IN ANDHRA PRADESH!
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