WORLD’S BEST ANALYSIS IS Politicsparty.com
Politicsparty.com was Alone in Predicting this Karnataka Post-Poll Scenario while everybody else was predicting a BJP Majority or a Congress Majority!
That is Why the Politicsparty.com Analysis is designated as the WORLD’S BEST ANALYSIS!
WILL INDEPENDENTS ABORT BJP GOVT
The Karnataka Assembly has 224 MLAs.
The Majority Figure required for Government Formation is 113 MLAs.
The BJP won 110 MLAs.
The Congress won 80 MLAs.
The JD (S) won 28 MLAs.
The Independents won 6 MLAs.
Four of the Six Independent MLAs are under the control of the Sonia Congress.
The BJP needs One of them to reach the majority figure of 113 MLAs.
if the BJP Had failed to capture the support of ONE of the Independents in the Congress camp then the BJP Government would have been been aborted.
BIRTH PANGS OF YET-TO-BE-BORN BJP GOVT
The BJP Government in Karnataka is having Pre-Birth Pangs generating instability and political churning.
The Elections are over but the Drama is getting longer.
The BJP needs the support of Three Independent MLAs to constitute a majority.
The Vajpayee Government fell in 1999 because it was short of ONE MP.
“Will the BJP Government be aborted because it is just short of ONE MLA?”was the question until late last night when the BJP finally succeeded in winning the support of the requsite independent MLA’s.
JD STRATEGY
The Congress and the JD (S) are waiting for the BJP to form the Government, to sit in the opposition.
If the BJP Fails to get a majority by wooing the Independent MLAs then the JD (S) would have tried to form the Government with Congress Support from outside.
SONIA STRATEGY
Congress President Sonia is clear that either it will be a BJP Government or Imposition of President’s Rule followed by Fresh Elections.
Sonia is not keen on a Coalition Government with the highly unpredictable Deve Gowda.
Sonia has therefore directed the Congress MLAs to meet at Bangalore on 28 May to Elect the Congress Legislature Party Leader who will be the Leader of the Opposition!
Sonia has decided that the Congress will sit in the Opposition until Fresh elections are held, sooner than later.
BJP GOVT FORMATION STRATEGY
The BJP was to meet the Governor before Lunch and stake claim to form the Government.The BJP was unable to muster the Three MLAs and thus postponed the Meeting with the Governor again and again.
The BJP Offered 50 Crores and a Minister position for every Independent MLA.
The BJP has managed Two MLAs by afternoon and required a Third MLA to reach the magic figure of 113 MLAs.
The BJP has delayed its meeting with the Governor because of the failure to get the 113 th MLA to support it.
The BJP is desperately tried to woo the MLA from Chitradurga, a Liquour dealer owning a Distillery and a Congress Rebel.
By 9 PM the BJP succeeded in securing the THIRD Independent MLA, thus it arrived at a majority.
Had the BJP not secured the support of the independents ,it would have begged the Governor to give it an Opportunity to win a Confidence Vote in the Assembly, after the BJP Chief Minister is installed even though he does not have a majority.
The BJP has however secured the support of 5 of the 6 independent MLA’s to raise its strength in the Assembly to 115 MLA’s.The BJP will now a majority Govt in Karnataka.
GOVERNOR STRATEGY
The Governor will be Correct if he does either:
Continue President’s Rule since the BJP does not have a majority of 113 MLAs.
Swear-In the BJP Chief Minister, direct a Confidence Vote.
Thereafter if the BJP wins the Confidence Vote by breaking the JD (S) then it will be a BJP Government for five years.
If the BJP Loses then the Governor will ask the Congress Party and JD (S).
If both of them Fail to produce a majority then the Governor will Dissolve the assembly, Continue President’s Rule and ask the Election Commission to hold Fresh Elections.
Between now and the confidence vote in the Assembly the Karnataka Post-Election Scenario will reach its Logical Conclusion:
Either a BJP Government for 5 years OR Fresh Elections!
Exactly as Predicted by Politics party .com!
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