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"HIMACHAL PRADESH ELECTIONS ANALYSIS"
SONIA COOK SPOILS CONGRESS BROTH IN HIMACHAL
MAYAWATI SNATCHES COMMITTED CONGRESS VOTES
   
PRIME MINISTER ‘TO BE’ ADVANI LEADS BJP TO WIN
HIMACHAL VOTES OUT SONIA CONGRESS
 By SIDDHARTHA
20 DECEMBER 2007

The Congress returned to power in the 2002 Assembly Elections, polling 41 per cent votes to win 43 MLAs.
The BJP, which polled 35.38 per cent votes, won only 16 seats to lose Government.

Himachal voters braved the Winter Chill with an almost 70 per cent turn out, on 19th December to probably vote out the Congress Government.

Results will be declared on 23 December 2007. Do not Rule out the possibility of a Hung Assembly with Mayawati becoming Himachal Queen Too!

POLARISED CORRUPTION

Himachal Pradesh has a Tradition of voting out every corrupt Government, every 5 years. Himachal is locked in a death trap with having to choose between the Corrupt Congress and the equally Corrupt BJP.

Every Five Years the Voters throw out the Ruling Party and bring the Main Opposition Party to Power.

Until Now Himachal was polarised between the Congress and the BJP. Each came to power alternately.

MAYAWATI

In the 2007 December Elections the Bahujan Samaj Party is threatening to be a Third force.

Mayawati, buoyed by her splendid victory in Uttar Pradesh is hoping for a impressive performance in Himachal. Mayawati hopes to wean away Dalits from the Congress and the Brahmins from the BJP. Himachal has 29 per cent Dalits and 15 per cent Brahmins.

Mayawati would be delighted if Himachal Results produce a Hung Assembly, with Mayawati’s BSP as the King Maker!

THAKUR BJP VS BRAHMIN BJP

The BJP has Two major Factions.

One led by veteran Brahmin leader Shanta Kumar.
The Other led by Thakur leader Prem Kumar Dhumal.
Dhumal is a confidante of L.K.Advani and Rajnath Singh.

Dhumal manipulated the Bosses and won the race against Shanta Kumar to be the Chief Minister Candidate of the BJP.

The Thakurs are delighted. The Brahmins are angry. Were they angry enough to vote for Mayawati’s BSP Candidates? We will know on Counting Day 23 December 2007.

SONIA FACTION VS VIRBHADRA SINGH FACTION

The Congress has two main factions.
One is led by the Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh. A Thakur. The Brahmins hate him. Sonia too hates him. Sonia prefers a Christian woman called Vidya Stokes.

The Congress Party gave Tickets to Contest to both the Factions.

SONIA COOK SPOILS HIMACHAL BROTH

Sonia is being ridiculed all over Himachal. Sonia denied Party Tickets to veteran Political Leaders. Sonia replaced them with her domestic servants.

Sonia denied tickets to Six-time MLA and state Horticulture Minister Singhi Ram from Rampur and Deputy Speaker Dharampal Thakur (Arki) in Solan district in favour of former SPG commando Nand Lal and Prakash Chand Karad, son of a former cook of the Sonia Family

Kin of Congress leaders have got tickets on nine seats out of the 65 that went to polls in the second phase on December 19.

CONCLUSION

The Mood in Himachal is against the Congress Government.
Therefore Only the committed voters voted for the Congress. Others voted either for the BSP or for the winning BJP.

Sonia is not expecting the Congress to win but hopes that She will not lose Himachal horribly.
L.K.Advani is confident of a BJP Victory on the promise of providing Honest Governance. But BJP’s Dhumal as Chief Minister was as corrupt as Congress’s VirBhadhra Singh!
Mayawati will be delighted if the Results produce a Hung Assembly.

politicsparty.com will analyse the Himachal Results on 23rd December.

(Send Comments to politicsparty@gmail.com or SMS to 9958976000)
 
HIMACHAL WILL ENDORSE ADVANI AS PRIME MINISTER
BJP NATIONAL EXECUTIVE MUST MEET TO HAIL ENDORSEMENT
   
SONIA 'SILLY-SPEAK' GIFTS GUJARAT & HIMACHAL TO BJP
2008 WILL BE A YEAR OF EXCITING NATIONAL POLITICS
 By SIDDHARTHA
19 DECEMBER 2007

politicsparty.com PREDICTS that the Hill State of Himachal Pradesh will on 19th December Endorse L.K.Advani as the Next Prime Minister.

Advani and his BJP drew excellent crowd response all over Himachal. Advani promised Himachal with Good Governance.Himachal has accepted Advani’s offer.

The BJP will get a clear majority in the 68 MLAs Assembly.

Gujarat has already endorsed Advani as the Next Prime Minister.

BJP NATIONAL EXECUTIVE MUST MEET

The BJP National Executive must meet immediately after the Himachal and Gujarat Assembly Results are declared. The positive mood created by these two states must be well utilised by the BJP to spread the same effect in other states too.

In that the BJP must congratulate the people of Gujarat and Himachal for voting on the “Issue of Good Governance” ably articulated by L.K.Advani. In Gujarat the Narendra Modi Government gave a “Governance of Financial Integrity” unparalleled in India’s History. In Himachal the people accepted Advani’s offer of emulating the Gujarat Model of Governance.

The National Executive must thank the people of Gujarat and Himachal for endorsing Advani as the Next Prime Minister.

The National Executive must discuss a Strategy to get every State in India to endorse Advani as the Next Prime Minister.

Advani must get the National Executive to Promise India a “Governance of Financial Integrity”

MAYAWATI’S NATIONAL AMBITION

Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party is expected to grab a huge chunk of Congress Dalit Votes. In Himachal Dalits constitute 29 per cent of the vote. Almost half of that is expected to desert the Sonia Congress.

Gujarat and Himachal will indicate if Mayawati’s Appeal will work outside Uttar Pradesh.

If the BSP does well then in all other States too, the BSP will devour Congress votes to emerge as a decisive force in the Lok Sabha Elections rocketing the BSP to grab more than 100 Lok Sabha Seats.

If the BSP fails to impress then Mayawati will be restricted to just Uttar Pradesh.

SONIA MUST KILL HER SPEECH WRITERS

Congress President Sonia failed horribly in Speech Content in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Sonia must immediately shoot her Ghost Speech Writers. Sonia needlessly campaigned on a communal tone in these Elections.

Sonia’s communal decibel in attacking Narendra Modi spoiled the Congress prospects in Gujarat.
Sonia should have promised a better Chief Minister than Vir Bhadra Singh.
In Himachal there are hardly any Muslims. But in Himachal too Sonia concentrated on appealing to Muslim votes.

SONIA GIFT TO ADVANI

Sonia has unwisely Gifted Gujarat and Himachal to Advani as a parting gift of 2007.
Sonia has thus helped in endorsing Advani as the Prime Minister!

politicsparty.com PREDICTS that President Bush, Advani, Sonia, Karat and Mayawati will make 2008 a Year of exciting national Politics!

(Send Comments to politicsparty@gmail.com or SMS to 9958976000)
 
WILL MAYAWATI BE QUEEN OF HIMACHAL TOO?
WILL MAYAWATI BE KING MAKER IN HIMACHAL TOO?
WILL MAYAWATI MAKE SONIA SMILE & ADVANI FROWN?
 
SONIA IS LOSING HIMACHAL! WILL ADVANI WIN IT?
MAYAWATI AROUSES VOTERS’ CURIOSITY IN HIMACHAL
HIMACHAL IS NOW COMPLICATED BY THE BLUE ELEPHANT!
 By SIDDHARTHA
30 NOVEMBER 2007

CONGRESS DEFEAT CERTAIN
The ONLY Certainty in the Himachal Elections is that the Sonia Congress Government of Virbhadra Singh will be voted out.

Sonia hates Vir Bhadra. Sonia will not weep if Vir Bhadra loses.
Will Sonia Smile if Advani wins Himachal?
Or Will Sonia Laugh if the BJP loses because it picked Dhumal to be Chief Minister?

Who will make Sonia to Laugh? Who will make Advani to Frown?

POLARISED HIMACHAL

Himachal Traditionally is a Polarised State.
The Political War is between the BJP and the Congress.
In Government Both of them are so corrupt that it is impossible to distinguish their Governance.
The People of Himachal are sick of Both.
In Every Election the voters vote out the Government in Power because it always is more corrupt than the earlier one.
10 Years ago a corrupt Congress Government led by Vir Bhadra Singh was voted out.
5 Years ago a corrupt BJP Government led by Prem Dhumal was voted out.
Now again, a corrupt Congress Government led by Vir Bhadra Singh will be voted out.

UNCERTAIN ABOUT WINNER

The Big Uncertainty is as to Who will be Voted In?
In Normal Times this Question would never have risen.
This 2007 Election is going to be Historic.

The Simple Straight Forward Congress Verses BJP Battle has been complicated by the entry of  Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party in to the Fray.

BSP is fielding candidates in all the Constituencies.

In earlier Elections the BSP never got a “Hello” from Himachal’s Dalit Voters. The Dalits stayed glued to the Congress.

The Historic Victory in Uttar Pradesh has enhanced Mayawati’s Stature among Dalits across North and West India.

In the current Elections most of the Dalits committed to the Congress will Break Free and vote for BSP Candidates. Therefore the Defeat of the Congress Government is a Certainty.

The Quantity of Dalit Support to BSP and the subsequent migration of other voters from the BJP and the Congress to the BSP, will determine the winner of Himachal!

HIMACHAL CASTE FIGURES

The Caste Equations in Himachal are interesting.

Dalits 29 per cent.
Thakurs 25 per cent.
Brahmins 19 per cent.
OBC 18 per cent
Sikhs, Punjabis and Others 9 per cent.

LIKELY SCENARIO

The Congress Chief Minister is a Thakur. Everyone knows that the Congress is losing.
Most of the Thakurs will vote for the BJP.
The BJP Nominee to be Chief Minister is a Thakur. Former Chief Minister Dhumal is a Advani Loyalist. Rajnath Singh too loves him.

Shanta Kumar the Brahmin Leader lost out in the race to be the BJP’s Chief Minister Nominee.

In Normal Circumstances the Brahmins would have blindly voted for the BJP.

Mayawati’s BSP will get 75 per cent of the Dalit Votes.
The Brahmins angry with the BJP will switch to the BSP.

OBCs will split Three Ways between all the Three namely the Congress, the BJP and the BSP depending upon who is winning in the particular constituency.

Who will be the Winner will depend on the Arithmetic of the winners in each constituency.

END RESULT

The Combination of Dalit and Brahmin Vote could give the BSP Upwards of 30 per cent Vote.
The Traditional BJP Vote would give it upwards of 30 per cent.
The Committed Congress Votes would give it almost 30 per cent Vote.

BLUE ELEPHANT AROUSES VOTERS’ CURIOSITY

The Bahujan Samaj Party’s Blue Elephant has complicated the Election Scenario in Himachal Pradesh.
Mayawati has aroused the voters curiosity in Himachal.
Mayawati has now opened up the Himachal Race.

PROBABLE SCENARIOS

Three Scenarios are Possible.

A Clear Majority for the BJP.
A Clear Majority for the BSP
A Hung Assembly with BJP being the Single Largest Party but falling short of a Majority.
In a Hung Assembly scenario the BSP will be the Chief Minister Maker.

politicsparty.com will soon PREDICT the Himachal Pradesh Results.

KEEP WATCHING THIS SPACE

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