WHO GRABS BIHAR GOVT?

The Bihar Elections will be in 6 Phases, from 21 October to 20 November with Results on 24 November 2010 .

The Actual Voting Attitude will be known Only after the Candidates are announced. This Analysis gives the "As of Now" Situation in Bihar .

NARROW WIN OR DEFEAT FOR NITISH

The Bihar Elections is heading for a Tough Contest.

As of Now both the BJP-JD Coalition and the Lalu Alliance are likely to win 100 Constituencies EACH of the Total of 240.

The Results of the extremely small margin of victory, in the remaining 40 Constituencies, will determine the Win or Lose the Bihar Government Scenario for Nitish Kumar.

SONIA FACTOR

If Congress President Sonia forges an Alliance with RJD Chief Lalu Yadav then Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will definitely lose the Government.

If Sonia sabotages Lalu Yadav by not allowing the RJD-Congress Alliance , then the JD (U)-BJP Coalition will scrape through to a narrow victory.

Sonia will thus be the King Maker in Bihar, after the Results are declared.

BJP WILL PROJECT NITISH AS CM

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has succeeded, in forcing the BJP to unconditionally project him as the Chief Minister of the Janata Dal (U)-BJP Coalition, in the November 2010 Assembly Elections.

The Coalition will function smoothly from now onwards, to try to scrape through to a marginal victory, against the highly resurgent Lalu Yadav Alliance of Regional Forces, threatening to Misgovern Bihar again.

NARENDRA MODI BANNED FROM BIHAR

The BJP has conceded to the request of Nitish Kumar, that all the BJP Position Holders, who have in the past tarnished their profile, by loud mouthing Communal Poison against the Muslims, must NOT be allowed to enter Bihar, from NOW until the Polling Date.

Publicly the BJP Spokesmen will deny, any Deal with Nitish, in isolating Bihar from Narendra Modi.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, has been directed by the RSS-BJP Brains Trust, to not to plan any tour of Bihar, until the Elections are completed.

Narendra Modi has also been directed, NOT to issue any advertisements, on Television and in the Print Media, appealing to Bihar Voters, to vote for the BJP Candidates.

Narendra Modi has been ordered to NOT to speak on any issues concerning Bihar until the counting of votes is completed.

Narendra Modi has been banned from all Electoral Activity in Bihar .

KEEP OUT POISON PYGMIES

The BJP has also agreed to the Nitish Kumar Request, to prevent the pigmy versions of Narendra Modi, from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, to enter Bihar , until the Elections are over.

These Poison Pygmies, have been directed to keep their mouths shut, on all matters concerning Bihar and not to speak against Muslims, until the Bihar Elections are over.

NITISH FREEZES HOT-HEADS

Nitish has thus ensured that the Hindu Freaks in the BJP, will not damage the credibility of the Coalition, in the minds of Muslim Voters.

Nitish wants to prevent an exodus, in a wave, of Muslim votes to Lalu Yadav Candidates, because of the insane outbursts by crazy Hindu-Hot Heads in the BJP.

Nitish has succeeded in isolating Bihar from the Communal Campaign by a section of the Non-Bihar BJP Leaders.

NITISH WOOS MUSLIMS

The Nitish Strategy to split the Muslim Votes, will NOW succeed.

Nitish is trusted by most Muslims in Bihar .

Nitish will thus secure most of the Muslim Votes, for the Janata Dal United Candidates.

The Muslims will however not vote for the BJP Candidates.

Nitish has won a great number of Muslim Votes, by cooling down the BJP Rhetoric against Muslims.

NITISH WANTS GADKARI OUT OF BIHAR

Nitish has made a powerful request to the BJP.

Nitish does not want the BJP President Nitin Gadkari to campaign in Bihar .

Gadkari is a Maharashtrian.

Gadkari is perceived as a Political Partner of the Anti-Bihar Raj Thackeray, who has been consistently abusing Biharis and threatening to throw out all Biharis from Mumbai.

Gadkari and Raj Thackeray are Hate Icons across Bihar .

The Sight and Sound of Gadkari in Bihar , will drive away most of the Bihari Voters to Lalu Yadav.

Lalu Yadav is about to unleash a intensive Propaganda Blitz on Television, in Print Media and in Public Meetings against "Anti-Bihar" Maharashtrian Nitin Gadkari and Raj Thackeray.

Nitin is sure that the presence of the BJP President Gadkari in Bihar, will ensure the defeat of the Janata Dal United-BJP Coalition, because of the agonised anger of Biharis against all Maharashtrians.

The BJP-RSS-Think Tank, has agreed to the Nitish Kumar request, to keep Nitin Gadkari away from Bihar , during the Election Campaign.

NITISH WANTS GADKARI REPLACED

Nitish has also suggested to the BJP Emissaries , to get Nitin Gadkari to Resign as the BJP President and replace him with a Non-Maharashtrian.

Nitish would be delighted, if Advani could take over as the BJP President, for the duration of the Bihar Elections.

Nitish feels that without Nitin Gadkari as the BJP President, it would become impossible for Lalu Yadav, to ignite Anti-Maharashtrian Wave, against the Nitish-BJP Coalition.

Nitish has suggested, that Nitin Gadkari get admitted in to a Hospital, cite Health Reasons and Resign as BJP President in September 2010.

Nitish has No problems, if Gadkari resumes his Position as the BJP President, in December 2010, after the Bihar elections are completed.

ADVANI MONEY CHEST

Advani is agreeable to the Nitish Suggestion.

Advani has gained complete control of the BJP but has LOST the Keys to the BJP Treasure Chest, to Gadkari and Bhagwat.

Advani wants to use Nitish to exit Gadkari and grab the Office of the BJP President, so that he grabs back the Keys, to the BJP Money Chest.

BHAGWAT REPLACEMENT FOR GADKARI

RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat is still to decide on the issue.

Mohan Bhagwat does NOT trust anyone other than Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh Leaders, to occupy the Office of the BJP President.

Mohan Bhagwat does NOT want Advani nor any Advani Crony, to Fill in as the BJP President for the Three Months, that Nitin Gadkari would have to be kept out, of the Office of the BJP President.

Mohan Bhagwat would prefer a senior BJP Leader from Madhya Pradesh, like Kailash Joshi or someone else, to be the Interim Stop-Gap BJP President until December 2010.

The moment Bhagwat decides on Gadkari’s Replacement, Gadkari will Resign and the Chosen Leader from Madhya Pradesh will become the BJP President. Bhagwat has a difficult decision, to make.

BHAGWAT MIGHT REFUSE TO REPLACE GADKARI

Bhagwat might also decide against replacing Nitin Gadkari, thus rejecting the Nitish Kumar proposal.

Bhagwat will however agree to direct Gadkari to get hospitalised, so that Gadkari is not visible and audible, during the Bihar Elections Campaign

BJP IN BAD SHAPE

Bihar has 240 Assembly Constituencies.

The Janata Dal United won 80 Seats and the BJP 50 Seats in the 2005 Assembly Elections.

It would be impossible for the BJP to win even 40 Seats, even in Alliance with Nitish.

This is because the BJP Deputy Chief Minister, has been notoriously corrupt, brazenly arrogant, mercilessly factionalist and has stupidly marginalised all the dedicated winners in the BJP.

Every Seat that the BJP Contests above 40, would be a seat gifted to the RJD Alliance of Lalu Yadav.

Every Seat above the 40 Seats, allotted to the BJP, is a SURE LOST seat for the Nitish Coalition.

LION'S SHARE OF SEATS

Nitish has therefore requested the BJP, to contest 50-60 Seats ONLY, out of the 240 Seats in the Assembly.

Nitish wants the BJP to allow the Janata Dal United, to contest 180 Seats.

Ground Reports indicate that the BJP would find it impossible to win more than 20 Assembly Seats.

Nitish has to ensure that the Janata Dal United wins a minimum of 110 of the Total of 240 Seats, to be comfortable to win the Government again.

SURRENDER TO CONQUER

The BJP Bihar Leaders, can by being foolish, refuse to accept the Nitish Wisdom.

They will then ensure that Lalu Yadav grabs the Bihar Government.

The BJP State Leaders want to contest 110 Seats and allow the Janata Dal United to Contest 130 Seats.

L.K.Advani understands the Electoral wisdom of Nitish Kumar, in the JD (U)wanting to contest 180 Seats.

Advani will ultimately force the BJP to accept the 50-60 Seats, that Nitish Allots to the BJP.

CONGRESS DOOMED

The Indian National Congress, is in the worst of horrible situations in Bihar .

No one in Bihar expects the Congress Party to win more than 10 Seats.

These 10 also would be won in the Constituencies, wherein both Lalu and Nitish err and field the wrong candidates.

No Caste among the major demographic Groups in Bihar , is voting en mass for the Congress Party.

All Biharis are convinced, that a Vote for the Congress Party is a definite wasted vote.

5 to 10 Individual Candidates from the Congress Party will win, because of caste and the weakness of the Other candidates, in 5-10 Constituencies.

Sonia has wasted SIX years in the Central Government, by not inducting Caste Leaders as Central Ministers.

Sonia has unwisely NOT empowered Leaders from the Bhoomihar, Brahmin, Thakur, Dalit and OBC Castes, to build their stature to mobilise votes from each caste.

The Congress Party thus has NO Electoral Leaders, in Bihar , to motivate voters of any Caste.

LALU INVOKES ANTI-MAHARASHTRIANISM

Lalu Yadav has generated a terrific momentum, among the Yadav, Dalit and Muslim Voters in Bihar .

Lalu is also successfully using Maharashtrian Gadkari to ignite passion against the JD-BJP Candidates, among Bihari Voters angry with the Raj Thackeray campaign of violent anti-Biharism.

Lalu Yadav’s Alliance will definitely win a minimum of 100 Seats against the 100 of the Janata Dal-BJP Coalition.

FINISHLINE

Nitish Kumar is still perceived as the Decent Chap and "Effective in Governance" Leader across Bihar , in comparison to the Horror called Lalu Yadav.

If the BJP strengthens Nitish Kumar and implements his Electoral Strategies, then the Janata Dal United-BJP Coalition will barely scrape through, to win the Government again, by surviving the Grab, by the aggressive claws of Lalu Yadav.

BJP WILL PROJECT NITISH AS CM

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has succeeded, in forcing the BJP to unconditionally project him as the Chief Minister of the Janata Dal (U)-BJP Coalition, in the November 2010 Assembly Elections.

The Coalition will function smoothly from now onwards, to scrape through to a marginal victory, against the highly resurgent Lalu Yadav Alliance of Regional Forces.

NARENDRA MODI BANNED FROM BIHAR

The BJP has conceded to the request of Nitish Kumar, that all the BJP Position Holders, who have in the past tarnished their profile, by loud mouthing Communal Poison against the Muslims, must NOT be allowed to enter Bihar, from NOW until the Polling Date.

Publicly the BJP Spokesmen will deny, any Deal with Nitish, in isolating Bihar from Narendra Modi.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, has been directed by the RSS-BJP Brains Trust, to not to plan any tour of Bihar, until the Elections are completed.

Narendra Modi has also been directed, NOT to issue any advertisements, on Television and in the Print Media, appealing to Bihar Voters, to vote for the BJP Candidates.

Narendra Modi has been ordered to NOT to speak on any issues concerning Bihar until the counting of votes is completed.

Narendra Modi has been banned from all Electoral Activity in Bihar .

KEEP OUT POISON PYGMIES

The BJP has also agreed to the Nitish Kumar Request, to prevent the pigmy versions of Narendra Modi, from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, to enter Bihar , until the Elections are over.

These Poison Pygmies, have been directed to keep their mouths shut, on all matters concerning Bihar and not to speak against Muslims, until the Bihar Elections are over.

NITISH FREEZES HOT-HEADS

Nitish has thus ensured that the Hindu Freaks in the BJP, will not damage the credibility of the Coalition, in the minds of Muslim Voters.

Nitish wants to prevent an exodus, in a wave, of Muslim votes to Lalu Yadav Candidates, because of the insane outbursts by crazy Hindu-Hot Heads in the BJP.

Nitish has succeeded in isolating Bihar from the Communal Campaign by a section of the Non-Bihar BJP Leaders.

NITISH WOOS MUSLIMS

The Nitish Strategy to split the Muslim Votes, will NOW succeed.

Nitish is trusted by most Muslims in Bihar .

Nitish will thus secure most of the Muslim Votes, for the Janata Dal United Candidates.

The Muslims will however not vote for the BJP Candidates.

Nitish has won a great number of Muslim Votes, by cooling down the BJP Rhetoric against Muslims.

NITISH WANTS GADKARI OUT OF BIHAR

Nitish has made a powerful request to the BJP.

Nitish does not want the BJP President Nitin Gadkari to campaign in Bihar.

Gadkari is a Maharashtrian.

Gadkari is perceived as a Political Partner of the Anti-Bihar Raj Thackeray, who has been consistently abusing Biharis and threatening to throw out all Biharis from Mumbai.

Gadkari and Raj Thackeray are Hate Icons across Bihar.

The Sight and Sound of Gadkari in Bihar, will drive away most of the Bihari Voters to Lalu Yadav.

Lalu Yadav is about to unleash a intensive Propaganda Blitz on Television, in Print Media and in Public Meetings against “Anti-Bihar” Maharashtrian Nitin Gadkari and Raj Thackeray.

Nitish is sure that the presence of the BJP President Gadkari in Bihar, will ensure the defeat of the Janata Dal United-BJP Coalition, because of the agonised anger of Biharis against all Maharashtrians.

The BJP-RSS-Think Tank, has agreed to the Nitish Kumar request, to keep Nitin Gadkari away from Bihar, during the Election Campaign.

NITIN WANTS GADKARI REPLACED

Nitish has also suggested to the BJP Supremo L.K.Advani, to get Nitin Gadkari to Resign as the BJP President and replace him with a Non-Maharashtrian.

Nitish would be delighted, if Advani could take over as the BJP President, for the duration of the Bihar Elections.

Nitish feels that without Nitin Gadkari as the BJP President, it would become impossible for Lalu Yadav, to ignite Anti-Maharashtrian Wave, against the Nitish-BJP Coalition.

Nitish has suggested that Nitin Gadkari get admitted in to a Hospital, cite Health Reasons and Resign as BJP President in July 2010.

Nitish has No problems, if Gadkari resumes his Position as the BJP President, in December 2010, after the Bihar elections are completed.

ADVANI MONEY CHEST

Advani is agreeable to the Nitish Suggestion.

Advani has gained complete control of the BJP but has LOST the Keys to the BJP Treasure Chest, to Gadkari and Bhagwat.

Advani wants to use Nitish to exit Gadkari and grab the Office of the BJP President, so that he grabs back the Keys, to the BJP Money Chest.

BHAGWAT REPLACEMENT FOR GADKARI

RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat is still to decide on the issue.

Mohan Bhagwat does NOT trust anyone other than Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh Leaders, to occupy the Office of the BJP President.

Mohan Bhagwat does NOT want Advani nor any Advani Crony, to Fill in as the BJP President for the Four Months, that Nitin Gadkari would have to be kept out, of the Office of the BJP President.

Mohan Bhagwat would prefer a senior BJP Leader from Madhya Pradesh, like Kailash Joshi or someone else, to be the Interim Stop-Gap BJP President until December 2010.

The moment Bhagwat decides on Gadkari’s Replacement, Gadkari will Resign and the Chosen Leader from Madhya Pradesh will become the BJP President.

BJP IN BAD SHAPE

Bihar has 240 Assembly Constituencies.

The Janata Dal United won 80 Seats and the BJP 50 Seats in the 2005 Assembly Elections.

It would be impossible for the BJP to win even 40 Seats, even in Alliance with Nitish.

This is because the BJP Deputy Chief Minister, has been notoriously corrupt, brazenly arrogant, mercilessly factionalist and has stupidly marginalised all the dedicated winners in the BJP.

Every Seat that the BJP Contests above 50, would be a seat gifted to the RJD Alliance of Lalu Yadav.

Every Seat above the 50 Seats, allotted to the BJP, is a SURE LOST seat for the Nitish Coalition.

LION'S SHARE OF SEATS

Nitish has therefore requested the BJP, to contest 60 Seats ONLY, out of the 240 Seats in the Assembly.

Nitish wants the BJP to allow the Janata Dal United, to contest 180 Seats.

Ground Reports indicate that the BJP would find it impossible to win more than 20 Assembly Seats.

Nitish has to ensure that the Janata Dal United wins 110 Seats, to be comfortable to win the Government again.

SURRENDER TO CONQUER

The BJP State Leaders want to contest 110 Seats and allow the Janata Dal United to Contest 130 Seats.

L.K.Advani understands the Electoral wisdom of Nitish Kumar in wanting to contest 180 Seats.

Advani will ultimately force the BJP to accept the 50-60 Seats that nitish Allots to the BJP.

CONGRESS DOOMED

The Indian National Congress headed by Sonia is in the worst of horrible situations in Bihar .

No one in Bihar expects the Congress Party to win more than 10 Seats.

These 10 also would be won in the Constituencies wherein both Lalu and Nitish field the wrong candidates.

No Caste among the major demographic groups in Bihar is voting en mass for the Congress Party.

All Biharis are convinced that a Vote for the Congress Party is a definite wasted vote.

5 to 10 Individual Candidates from the Congress Party will win because of caste and the weakness of the Other candidates in these 5-10 Constituencies.

Sonia has wasted SIX years in the Central Government, by unwisely NOT empowering Leaders from the Bhoomihar, Brahmin, Thakur, Dalit and OBC Castes.

The Congress Party thus has NO Leaders to motivate voters.

LALU INVOKES ANTI-MAHARASHTRIANISM

Lalu Yadav has generated a terrific momentum, among the Yadav, Dalit and Muslim Voters in Bihar .

Lalu is also successfully using Maharashtrian Gadkari to ignite passion against the JD-BJP Candidates, among Bihari Voters angry with the Raj Thackeray campaign of violent anti-Biharism.

Lalu Yadav's Alliance will definitely win a minimum of 100 Seats against the 125 of the Janata Dal-BJP Coalition.

The BJP can by being foolish in not accepting the Nitish Wisdom can ensure that Lalu Yadav grabs the Bihar Government.

FINISHLINE

Nitish Kumar is perceived as the Decent Chap and Effective in Governnace Leader across Bihar .

If the BJP strengthens Nitish Kumar and implements his Electoral Strategies then the Janata Dal United BJP Coalition will barely scrape through to win the Government again from the aggressive claws of Lalu Yadav.

Politicsparty.com PREDICTS CORRECTLY

Politicsparty.com Alone Had Predicted many months ago, that Nitish Kumar would Break Away from the BJP anytime in June 2010.

Politicsparty.com Prediction is about to Happen in Bihar .

28 MAY TO 28 NOVEMBER 2010

The Bihar Assembly was constituted on 28 November 2005 .

Elections have to be held before 28 November 2010 .

Nitish can continue as care taker Chief Minister for 6 months from 28 MAY TO 28 NOVEMBER 2010 .

If Nitish Kumar Breaks away from the BJP any day after 28 May 2010, then without a majority in the Assembly, he can continue as the Care Taker Chief Minister, until the Elections are completed in November.

Politicsparty.com had Predicted that Nitish Kumar would Break the JD-BJP Coalition Government on 28 May 2010 .

SCHEDULE

Bihar Assembly Elections are due in November 2010.

The Electoral Consequences of the Two scenarios, of Nitish Kumar staying or breaking with the BJP are described here under.

AVOIDING PRESIDENT'S RULE

Nitish will take time to consolidate his position before breaking away from the BJP.

Nitish does Not want the Imposition of President's Rule.

Nitish will lose the advantage of the Control of the Administration, if President’s Rule is imposed.

If Nitish breaks away from the BJP just Now then the Congress Party will impose President's Rule.

If Nitish Breaks with the BJP after the Election Schedule is announced then Nitish will continue as the Care Taker Chief Minister.

If Nitish Breaks away from the BJP after dissolving the Assembly with the co-operation of the BJP, then President's Rule will not be imposed and Nitish will continue.

NITISH STAYS WITH BJP

If Nitish Kumar and the BJP continue to be in Alliance then they will win a clear majority to Retain the Government again.

The JD (U) of Nitish has a Vote Base of 20 % and the BJP a Vote Base of 15% if they contest in an Alliance .

This is higher than the Rival Alliance 0f RJD-LJSP of Lalu and Paswan.

The RJD has a Vote Base of 23% and LJSP has a Vote Base of 10%.

If Nitish-BJP Alliance continues then Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United will win 100 Assembly Seats on its own.

A Nitish-BJP Alliance will win more than 125 Seats out of the Total of 243 Seats to get a Majority Victory.

ZERO IN BIHAR

Sonia has not used the 6 years in the Central Government, to create a Powerful "Chief Ministerial" Leader in Bihar to mobilise votes for the Congress Party.

Sonia has failed to create a State Icon to lead the Congress Party in Bihar .

Sonia should have promoted a Political Nominee from either the OBCs to lure the Backward Castes or a Thakur-Brahmin-Bhumihar Consolidator to forge a Forward-Dalit-Muslim Alliance .

Now, the Congress Party thus, does not have the complete backing of any Caste nor Caste Coalition.

As a result there is no Vote-Reservoir for the Congress Party. This has created complete Non-Viability in Elections.

Sonia thus does not have the apparatus to even challenge the Main Political forces in Bihar .

The Congress Party will win less than 9 Assembly Seats out of 243, irrespective of Nitish staying in or leaving the BJP Coalition.

BJP CORRUPTION

The BJP too has wasted its 5 years in Coalition in the State Government.

The BJP has not created State Icons to mobilise votes.

The BJP has inflicted itself with a Baniya at the helm of the BJP Portion of the Government, Sushil Kumar Modi.

The Baniyas are miraculously classified as Backwards in Bihar .

Modi spends all his time converting the Governmental Patronage in to Truck Loads of Crores, to share it with his Tall boss at New Delhi .

Modi does not allow any Popular Leader from any Caste to survive.

The BJP thus gets a few votes, from Voters, who just cannot vote anywhere else.

The BJP Ministers with their rampant corruption have messed up Bihar .

The BJP voters, workers and MLAs are infuriated with the High Corruption, Brazen Arrogance and divisive Factionalism by the BJP Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi.

The BJP won 55 Seats in Alliance with Nitish. Even if the BJP is in Alliance with Nitish, its Tally will drop to 25 Seats.

If Nitish breaks Alliance with the BJP, then it will win less than 15 Seats.

LALU YADAV RE-INCARNATION

Lalu Prasad Yadav has regained considerable political-electoral esteem, almost suddenly.

The explosive opposition to the Women Reservation Bill by Lalu Yadav has impressed the Yadav and Muslim Voters.

The Yadav Voters had gone astray from Lalu in the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.

The Yadavs have now returned 100% to support Lalu Yadav.

Lalu Yadav has thus got miraculously revived, by the consolidation of the Muslims-Yadavs Vote Base.

Lalu has by aligning with Ram Vilas Paswan increased his vote base, by adding Dalits aligned with Paswan.

The Lalu Yadav's RJD Alliance Candidates will win about 100 Assembly Seats against a Nitish-BJP Alliance , but will not come to Power.

NITISH GOVERNANCE IMPRESSES VOTERS

Nitish Kumar was installed as Chief Minister, by Bihar Voters infuriated with the brazen corruption by the Lalu-Rabri System.

Nitish has Governed Bihar better than anyone else in the recent 30 Years.

Nitish has ushered in Development, Infrastructure and Programmes that have improved the topography of Bihar and have provided immense benefits to vast sections of the population.

Nitish has in comparison to Lalu acquired the image of a Nice Guy and is popular because of his Honest Image and constructive work.

Nitish is also liked by the huge Muslim Population in Bihar , for not allowing the Coalition Government to do anything Communal.

Muslims are appreciative of Nitish for creating Education-Employment-Welfare opportunies in a big manner for the Muslims.

Nitish is a Kurmi by Birth and the Kurmis are delighted that he is the Only Kurmi Chief Minister in India .

Nitish has acquired the Leadership of the Non-Yadav OBCs constituting 30% of Bihar Electorate.

Nitish in his strategy to consolidate the OBC Votes, has caused a severe Reaction against him among the Forward Castes.

The Thakurs, the Brahmins and the Bhumihars do not want Nitish to continue as the Chief Minister, for even one day.

The Muslims even though do not have any complaint against Nitish will vote en mass for the Lalu Yadav Alliance because of the BJP irritating them with the “Red Flag to the Bulls” type of Varun in the National Hierarchy and the over presence of Narendra Modi.

Inspite of all the Forward Caste Anger and the Muslim drift the Nitish Led Janata Dal (U) can fall in an upset defeat to lose the Government of Bihar, to the Lalu-Paswan Alliance.

CASTE ATTITUDE

The Thakurs, Brahmins and Boomihars will NOT vote for Nitish.

They will vote for their Caste Candidates irrespective of the Party, in a Casteist Tactical Voting.

The Yadavs will vote mainly for Lalu Yadav.

The Dalits will split between Lalu-Paswan, Nitish and the BJP.

The Muslims will vote massively for Lalu, if Nitish stays in Alliance with the BJP.

The Muslims will have to make a choice between Lalu and Nitish, in case Nitish breaks with the BJP.

NITISH DILEMMA

Nitish is therefore in a Huge Dilemma.

If Nitish Stays with BJP the 15% Hindu Minded Caste Votes will come to the Nitish-BJP Alliance but the 20% Muslim Votes will vote in a wave for Lalu.

If Nitish Breaks from the BJP then 5% of the 15% Hindu Minded Votes will still vote for Nitish Candidates because of Cate Considerations.

If Nitish Breaks with the BJP in a Violent manner abusing Narendra Modi and all the Hindu Hot-Heads then the 20% Muslim Votes will swing in a wave away from Lalu to Nitish.

Nitish is therefore contemplating to contest the Bihar Elections on his own.

NICE NITISH

Nitish has a High Personal Image across the Poor and ordinary Voters of Bihar .

Bihar Voters are horrified by the intensely Corrupt Mis-Governance of Lalu Yadav and Paswan.

Bihar Voters have appreciated Nitish for providing a less corrupt and more competent Government than Lalu Yadav.

Bihar Voters are horrified that if Lalu grabs the Government, then the Yadav Goondas will destroy the peace in every locality and there would be no Governance at all, with Development Works coming to a complete Halt.

The Bihar Voters want Nice Nitish to win the Elections Again.

NITISH NUMBERS

The Non-Yadav OBCs comprise 30% of the Votes. The Muslims comprise 20% of the Votes. The Dalits comprise 15% of the Votes.

Nitish has to FORGE a New Caste Coalition of Non-Yadav OBCs, Muslims, Dalits and Powerful Brahmin-Thakur-Bhoomihar Candidates.

Nitish will have to get about 20-30- Strong BJP MLAs angry with the BJP State Leadership to defect to Nitish to Contest as JD (U) Candidates.

NITISH CAMPAIGN

If Nitish contests the Elections without an Alliance Campaigning against the Corrupt Lalu-Paswan Alliance and the Anti-Muslim BJP then there could be an upsurge in Vote Percentage for Nitish taking the Janata Dal (U) to a High of 35% Vote Share.

If Nitish promises to Bihar Voters a Progressive Bihar that will increase the incomes of the Poor, create massive Infrastructure, generate greater employment, break the stranglehold of the Yadavs and the Forward Castes on Bihar Society, then Nitish Kumar can create a New Vote Base for himself.

If Nitish Campaigns aggressively against the Lalu-Paswan and the BJP then his Janata Dal (U) contesting without any Alliance can win 125 of the 243 Assembly Constituencies to capture the Bihar Government again.

NITISH DESPERATELY NEEDS MUSLIMS

If Nitish has to re-win Bihar after breaking Alliance with the BJP then he has to make sure that the Muslim Voters swing 100% away from Lalu to Nitish Candidates.

If Muslims do not swing to Nitish 100% then Lalu will grab the Bihar Government.

Nitish Tirade against Narendra Modi is to create a Muslim Wave for Nitish.

FINISHLINE

Nitish Kumar is perceived by most voters in Bihar as the ONLY decent Politician in Bihar .

Bihar Voters are scared by the Fright of Corrupt Lalu-Paswan Alliance .