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SUSPENSE
There is No suspense about who will win Bihar in the 2010 Assembly Elections.
The ONLY Suspense about the Results is:
Will Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (U) win a Majority on its own by winning 122 MLAs to form the Government without the BJP?
NITISH ADVANTAGE
Bihar will have 6 Phases of Poling for 243 Assembly Constituencies, ending on 20 November 2010 .
Four Phases have been completed, concluding Elections for 182 Seats.
The Fifth Phase with 35 Seats and the Sixth Phase with 26 Seats in South Bihar , are yet to Poll.
The Chief Minister Nitish led Janata Dal-BJP Coalition has won the Majority of the 182 Assembly Constituencies in the Four Phases of Polling completed so far.
SONIA & LALU FAILURE
If Congress President Sonia and RJD President Lalu Yadav had forged a Grand Alliance of Anti-Nish Government Forces, then the Nitish Kumar Government would have lost the Elections.
The United Anti-Nitish Coalition would have won 150 of the 243 Constituencies to form a Majority Government.
The Failure of the Anti-BJP Party Bosses to create a United Alliance has generated a massive advantage for the Chief Minister Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (United)-BJP Coalition.
DIVIDED OPPOSITION
The Congress Party is contesting all the 243 Constituencies on its own.
The Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar is contesting against the Congress Party fielding its own candidates, though it is in the Central Government.
Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal is contesting 168 Constituencies and its Alliance Partner Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jan Shakti Party is contesting 75 Constituencies.
The Communists tried to create a United Front of Communists but failed.
The CPI, CPM and CPI-ML (L) have forged a Statewide Alliance to oppose the JD-BJP Coalition, the RJD-LJSP Alliance and the Congress Party.
The Small Communist Parties have forged another Alliance to contest 98 Seats. These Small Communist Outfits are angry that the Big Communists CPM, CPI and CPI-ML (L) did not accommodate the small Communists in the Grand Communist Alliance .
The Mayawati led Bahujan samaj party is contesting the Bihar Elections on its own.
Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi party too is contesting several seats on its own.
The Anti BJP-JD (U) Space is thus filled with more than 6 Candidates dividing the Anti-Nitish Votes.
DIVIDED MUSLIM VOTES
If there was a United Opposition against the Nitish Kumar Coalition, then the Muslims would have voted in a wave against the JD-BJP Coalition.
The absence of the United Opposition has destroyed the Value of the Muslim Votes.
The Muslim Votes are divided.
Muslims are voting differently in each Constituency.
In Every Constituency that has a Muslim candidate, the Muslims are voting for that Candidate.
Wherever there is No Muslim candidate, there the Muslims are voting for the Candidate perceived to be winning the Election.
Muslims are thus voting for the RJD, the Congress Party, the Communists and the Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (United) Candidates.
The Division of the Muslim Votes is creating a Huge Advantage for the Nitish-BJP Coalition Candidates in most Constituencies.
DALIT VOTES SCATTERED
The Dalit Votes in Bihar are NOT going to one Party.
The Dalit Votes are going to all the Parties in the Reserved Constituencies because the Candiadtes of all the Parties are Dalits.
In the Unreserved Constituencies the Dalit Votes are being divided among the Janata Dal United of Nitish Kumar, the Congress Party and the Paswan's LJSP.
The Dalit Votes are not going to lalu Yadav's RJD Candidates.
The Division of Dalit Votes is also creating an Advantage for the Nitish led Coalition Candidates.
BHOOMIHAR
The Bhoomihar Votes are going in a wave to the BJP-JD(U) Candidates.
The BJP is the most favoured Party by the Bhoomihars.
Though the Bhoomihars are angry with Nitish Kumar, they are voting for the Nitish Coalition, in the absence of a United Opposition to the Nitish Government.
YADAV VOTES FOR LALU
The Yadavs are voting in a wave for Lalu Yadav's RJD in most Constituencies.
In Constituencies wherein Lalu has not fielded Yadav Candidates and the Non-Yadav Candidates are losing, the Yadav Candidates of the Nitish-BJP Coalition are getting the Yadav Votes.
BRAHMINS & THAKURS
The Brahmins and Thakurs are voting Tactically.
In the Constituencies where there are Brahmin Candidates, the Brahmins are voting for them.
In the Constituencies where there are Thakur Candidates, the Thakurs are voting for them.
In the Constituencies where there are No Brahmin and Thakur Candidates, the Brahmins and Thakurs are voting for the Nitish-BJP Coalition Candidates.
The Brahmin and Thakur Votes are helping the Nitish Kumar Coalition to win the Elections.
CONGRESS INCREASE
The Congress Party won just 9 Assembly Seats in the 2005 Assembly Elections, though it was in Alliance with Lalu Yadav.
This time, on its own the Congress Party will look stupid if it drops its Tally.
The Congress Party and will get no great applause even if it increases its Wins, to Double its Tally in Bihar .
LALU PROSPECTS RISE
Lalu Yadav is constrained by the absence of the Muslim wave against the Nitish Coalition.
Lalu Yadav will have less to cry if the RJD Tally increases substantially but is short of the Nitish Coalition Tally.
Lalu Yadav's Tears will drown the RJD if the winning seats are far less than that of November 2005.
RAM BOUNCE
The Allahabad High Court Verdict in favour of the Ram Janma Bhoomi has created a Bounce for the BJP.
The Hindus drifting away from the BJP have been energised by the Ram Janma Bhoomi to enthusiastically Vote for the BJP-Nitish Coalition Candidates.
NICE FEEL ABOUT NITISH
There is a Statewide Feel Nice about Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.
The Nitish Kumar Governance is perceived to be far superior to the lalu Yadav and the Congress Party Regimes.
Most Bihar Voters do not want the horror of Lalu Yadav grabbing the Government to destroy the Governance.
Voters wanting Governance are voting for the Chief Minister Nitish Coalition.
EASY WIN
The 2010 Bihar Assembly Elections is not experiencing any serious competition, because of the intensely divided Opposition.
Sonia and Lalu Yadav have by their divisiveness, ensured the easy victory of the Nitish Kumar led Coalition in the 2010 Bihar Assembly Elections.
FINISHLINE
The Trends in the Four completed Phases of Polling Indicate, that the Nitish led JD (U) has so far won a majority on its own, of the 182 Seats, which have completed Polling.
The Results in the 61 South Bihar Assembly Seats in the Fifth and Sixth Phases of Polling, will determine if Nitish Kumar can get a majority for the JD (U) on its own to form the Government without the BJP.
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