VOTERS' MOOD, KEEPS CHANGING

Politics and Voters Attitude is Not Static. They are highly Dynamic.

Every Decision that any Party or Leader Utters, either increases the Votes OR reduces the Votes.

Every Government Policy and Party Strategy results in the Rise OR Fall of Voters’ Support!

There is Need therefore to Measure frequently, the Changed Mood among the Voters.

VOTERS ATTITUDE NOW

5 Months from now, in March 2012, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections Multi-Phases Process will begin.

Politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL was held, to understand the Uttar Pradesh Voters’ Attitude in October 2011.

UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS’ OPINION

Politicsparty.com conducted a Voters Attitude Poll, in Uttar Pradesh, to understand the Voters’ Mood, in all the 403 Assembly Constituencies, as of Now.

The Politicsparty.com Research Survey to gauge the Voters’ Mood, was conducted on 8-9 October 2011.

100 Representative Assembly Constituencies, across the State of Uttar Pradesh were selected, based on the Results in the 2007 Assembly Elections and the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.

A Random Sample of 200 (100 Men and 100 Women) Registered voters, were interviewed, in each Assembly Constituency.

The sample Interviewed for the Politicsparty.com Survey accurately represents the Socio-Economic Demographic Profile of Men and Women, in all the Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

The Politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll in Uttar Pradesh, has been conducted by a Team of highly qualified specialist Psephologists, with No Connectivity in Uttar Pradesh, with No Political Loyalties, Independent and possessing Professional Integrity.

POLLED QUESTION

The Voters in Uttar Pradesh, in this extensive politics party .com Voters Attitude Poll, on 8-9 October 2011, were asked the Question:

If the Elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly are held Today, Which Party will you vote for? if:

The Bahujan Samaj Party Projects Mayawati as the Chief Minister Candidate!

The Samajwadi Party Projects Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Son Akhilesh Singh Yadav as the young Chief Minister Candidate!

The Lok Dal Projects Ajit Singh as the Chief Minister Candidate!

The Bharatiya Janata Party Does Not Project any OBC Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate!

The Indian National Congress Does Not Project anyone as the Chief Minister Candidate!

Politicsparty.com PRESENTS
UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL
10 OCTOBER 2011

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly has 403 MLAs.

The Majority Figure is 202 MLAs.

The Politicsparty.com Uttar Pradesh Voters Attitude Poll October 2011, Predicts, that ultimately in 2012, One of the Two from the BSP OR the SP, will get the Majority Figure of 202 MLAs, but Now the BSP with 149 Wins is ahead of the SP with 139 Wins.

BJP OCTOBER COLLAPSE

The Big Story of the Politicsparty.com October 2011 Voters Attitude Poll is that the BJP has Collapsed in Uttar Pradesh in October 2011.

There are 2 Reasons for the sudden drop in Voters Support for the BJP.

OBC DRIFT FROM BJP

The Failure of the BJP to project the OBC Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate has angered the OBC Voters.

The OBC Voters are Now, trekking back to the Samajwadi Party, because of the aggressive Campaign by Akhilesh Yadav.

BJP LOSES MODI VOTERS

The BJP has dropped from a probable high of 202 Seats in September 2011.

The BJP has collapsed to just 59 Seats in October 2011.

The BJP Collpase is purely because of the RSS-BJP arrogantly and needlessly humiliating Narendra Modi.

PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI

Narendra Modi has acquired Prime Ministerial Stature because of Four Reasons.

Narendra Modi's propaganda about the Honest-Competent Governance of 10 years in Gujarat .

The Supreme Court Verdict literally exonerating Narendra Modi of the Gujarats Riots Accountability.

Narendra Modi thereafter taking the posture of Peace and Harmony.

Narendra Modi is the most popular OBC Icon in India .

VOTERS UPSET AT HURT TO NARENDRA MODI

Hindus Hate Violence and Love Harmony.

There is a national wave amomg Hindus and OBCs for Narendra Modi.

Narendra Modi is a Prime Ministerial Leader and an OBC Icon for the Voters in Uttar Pradesh.

The RSS-BJP are stupidly trying to marginalise Narendra Modi.

The Hindus in General and the OBC Voters in particular are completely upset with the RSS-BJP Bosses for trying to prevent the rise of Narendra Modi.

There is a Huge Reaction against the BJP, because of the RSS-BJP Negative attitude against Narendra Modi.

CASTE COMPOSITION OF VO TERS

The Uttar Pradesh Demographic Caste-Community Figures Are:

Middle Caste: Jats 5%.

Upper Castes: 12% (Brahmin 6%. Thakur 5%. Vysya 1%.)

Muslims: 18%.

SC: Dalits 28%.

OBC: 37% (Yadav 12%. Kurmi 9%. Lodh 9%. Other BCs 7%.)

The Backward Classes constitute the Biggest Voting Block in Uttar Pradesh.

Since the Dalits are 100% with Mayawati, any Party that wants to defeat the BSP, to grab the Government, must woo the Backward Caste Votes in Uttar Pradesh.

Any Party that wins more than 30% of the Votes, in a Four Party Contest, will definitely cross the Majority Figure of 202 MLAs to Grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

As of NOW , No Party is getting more than 30% of the Votes.

BSP 27%. SP 25%. BJP 20%. CONG 14%. OTHERS 12%. LOK DAL 2%.

The BSP OR the SP will by Polling Day cross the 30% Votes Figure to form a Majority Government.

CASTE SPREAD

The Caste Percentage, Varies in different Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

In Central and East Regions of Uttar Pradesh, there are No Jats. The Jats overall State Percentage is Low.

But in West Uttar Pradesh, in Each Assembly Constituency, in about 75-100 Constituencies, the Vote Percentage of Jats is over 20%.

The Yadavs, Lodhas and Kurmis too have their stronghold Districts.

There are many Constituencies with Low percentage of Muslims.

There are many Constituencies in which the Muslim Vote percentage is High.

The Dalits are evenly spread, thickly, about 28% in Each Assembly Constituency, across Uttar Pradesh.

The Upper Castes are spread too thinly across the State.

DALITS LOYAL TO ONLY MAYAWATI

Mayawati’s Vote Base of Dalits is Firmly with her.

The Dalit Votes are 100% Transferable by Mayawati.

Mayawati can and will deliver 100% of the Dalit Votes, to the BSP Candidate of any Other Caste.

NON DALITS DRIFT AWAY FROM MAYAWATI

The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Chief Minister Mayawati, is losing the Majority, though being ahead of all the Others.

Mayawati is Now completely unpopular among the Non-Dalit Voters.

This is causing the Fall of Votes of the Mayawati Government.

The Brahmins have completely deserted the BSP, except in Constituencies where the BSP Candidates are Brahmins.

Mayawati came to Power campaigning against the Goonda Raj of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

The Voters are Now, Not Happy with the Free Run that Goondas are having in the Society, during the Mayawati Regime.

Mayawati will have to demonstrate visible action against Goonds in Every District, for the BSP to win back the Voters who are disenchanted by the Violence.

LOSING FORMULA

The Dalits are 100% with Mayawati.

The Yadavs are 100% with Mulayam.

The Upper Castes hate each other. The Upper castes will Not Vote for the Chief Minister candidate from the OTHER Upper caste.

No Party can therefore win Uttar Pradesh, with a Chief Minister Candidate from the Brahmin, Thakur, Kayastha, Vysya and Muslim Caste-Community.

WINNING FORMULA

There is ONLY One Way to win the Uttar Pradesh Government.

The challenging Party, must project a Credible OBC, who will not be perceived as Hostile to the Upper Castes, to win Uttar Pradesh.

Kalyan Singh has lost steam, by leaving the BJP, identifying with Mulayam and then returning to the BJP.

Mulayam had also lost the Bondage with the Muslims by flirting with Kalyan Singh.

Mulayam had lost the Electoral Clout, by identifying with the scandalous Types like Amitabh Bachchan, Rich Businessmen and bed hopping Film Actresses.

Mulayam has recovered some ground after dumping his Pimp-Power Broker and the Anti-Muslim Kalyan Singh

But the damage done to the Mulayam Credibility has not yet been completely repaired. Hence the SP is lagging behind the BSP in both Seats and Vote Share.

Only if a Credible OBC Leader is projected as the Chief Minister Candidate, by the Congress Party, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party then there could be a serious challenge to Mayawati.

Mayawati is invincible in Uttar Pradesh, if the Opposing Party does not project a Credible-Popular OBC Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate.

The Bharatiya Janata Party was on a winning spree until September 2012, than in 2007, because of the Overall Bounce for the BJP across the Hindi Belt.

The Bihar Result was helping the BJP.

Hindu Voters in Uttar Pradesh, began believing that the BJP would Build the Ram Temple, if the BJP wins the Central Government.

The Allahabad High Court Verdict favouring the Ram Janma Bhoomi had activated Hindu Voters.

The Supreme Court Stay on the Allahabad High Court Verdict but continuing the Pooja for God Ram at Ayodhya had energised Hindus.

The Congress Central Government Scams Stink, High Prices, Terror Attacks and the Anna Hazare Movement had generated a wave of votes for the BJP, across the Hindi Belt.

ANNA HAZARE

The Anti-Corruption Movement was swinging the Votes away from the INC, BSP and SP towards the BJP in Huge Numbers.

The Anna Hazare Movement had collapsed the INC, BSP and SP Credibility because they are perceived to be corrupt.

The BJP, in September 2011, was benefiting from the Anna Hazare Anti-Corruption Movement, thus getting enough votes to win a Majority and Capture the Government.

ADVANI OBC MAGIC

L.K.Advani won Uttar Pradesh for the BJP, with the Magic OBC Formula.

Advani sidelined all the Upper Caste Nominees, to project the most powerful OBC Icon Kalyan Singh.

Kalyan Singh ensured that the BJP won 55-60 Lok Sabha Seats and the State Government on its own.

The BJP captured the Central Government in 1998, ONLY because Kalyan Singh delivered almost 60 Lok Sabha Seats from Uttar Pradesh.

The Vajpayee led Brahmins-Thakurs destroyed Kalyan Singh.

The forced humiliating Exit of Kalyan Singh, brought the BJP to a Low of Third Place in the Assembly and just 10 of the 80 Lok Sabha Seats, resulting in the loss of the Central Government in 2004.

BJP OBC BASE

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are OBC States.

The BJP-NDA won Bihar because it was led by the Credible OBC-Kurmi Leader Nitish Kumar, the huge Hindu Bounce for the BJP and the Muslims voting for both the JD-Nitish and the BJP Candidates.

The BJP won Madhya Pradesh because of OBC Leader Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

The BJP was perceived in September 2011, to be winning in Uttar Pradesh, because of its attempt to project as the Credible OBC Chief Minister Candidate, Uma Bharti the former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, whose candidature was mobilising the Non-Yadav OBC Votes.

ONLY OBC LEADER CAN WIN U.P. FOR BJP

The BJP can gain Seats in Uttar Pradesh, ONLY by identifying a Credible OBC Leader and projecting that Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate.

The BJP lost the earlier Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh, because it did not create the OBC Icon like Narendra Modi of Gujarat or Shivraj Singh Chauhan of Madhya Pradesh.

NITISH MAGIC

The more that Nitish Kumar campaigns for the BJP, the more number of seats will be lost by Mulayam to the BJP, if the BJP has a OBC Chief Minister Candidate.

Nitish, after the recent Bihar Victory, has become a Huge Icon for the, Kurmis and other Non-Yadav OBCs in Uttar Pradesh.

OBC UMA

If OBC Leader Uma Bharti had been made a Voter from Uttar Pradesh and projected as the BJP’s OBC Chief Minister Candidate, with aggressive campaigning by the Bihar Chief Minister Kurmi Nitish Kumar, then the BJP will win a Majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.

The BJP with Uma Bharti projected by Nitish Kumar, would have won the Majority of the 403 Assembly Seats, to defeat Mayawati’s BSP, wipe out Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Congress Party, to grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

MULAYAM

The Samajwadi Party is Not Yet winning Uttar Pradesh again.

Nitish Kumar campaigning for the BJP will evaporate most of Mulayam’s OBC Votes.

Mulayam Singh Yadav has lost the Electoral Clout, because the OBC-Muslim Vote Base is no longer fixed to Mulayam.

The Muslims are divided between the SP, BSP, INC and Lok Dal.

No Dalit Votes for Mulayam.

The Kurmis have left Mulayam, to split between the BSP, INC and BJP.

The Yadavs alone, cannot give Mulayam Singh Yadav too many Seats.

Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, has not regained the Complete Credibility to impress the Voters of Uttar Pradesh.

Mulayam has regained a lot of Lost Votes from 2009, but is still far from viability.

A Communal Polarisation of Hindus verses Muslims, can however suddenly swing the Muslims in a Wave towards Mulayam, to make the Samajwadi Party capture the Government.

Mulayam has to conjure a Miracle Strategy to Communalise the Electoral Scenario, to try to re-capture the State Government.

Otherwise Uttar Pradesh will be easily Lost by Mulayam again.

Mulayam must retire from the Chief Ministerial Race.

Mulayam must inject a younger Yadav as the Chief Minister Candidate.

Mulayam must project his son Akhilesh Yadav or One of his brothers, as the Chief Minister Candidate.

The Samajwadi Party led by a Young Yadav, will win enough Assembly Seats, reducing the BSP and BJP Tally to create a Hung Assembly Situation.

The Politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll says that if Akhilesh Yadav is projected as the Chief Minister Candidate then the Samajwadi Party will win upwards of 139 Assembly Seats to almost capture the Government.

RAHUL WEIGHED DOWN

Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi has struck a Positive Chord among Uttar Pradesh Voters.

The Voters expect Rahul to Deliver Governance, first in the Central Government and then in Uttar Pradesh.

The Corrupt Manmohan Government, the Unbearable High Prices and the Terror Attacks are preventing Rahul from winning Uttar Pradesh for the Congress Party.

Sonia and Rahul must realise that the Congress Party is NOT at all Electorally viable, in more than 300 of the 403 Assembly Constituencies.

Rahul Parachuting from New Delhi for a Demonstration, Protest and a Media Driven Exercise for a few days, will not sustain the Appeal.

The Congress Party needs a viable Candidate in Each Constituency, living in the Constituency, attending to Public Grievances Daily and spending Resources to maintain a work force.

Flying in from New Delhi for a few days, then disappearing, will not glue the voters to the Congress Party.

Sonia and Rahul have wasted almost 8 years of Central Government, by NOT building Caste Leaders, to woo voters.

A dozen Union Ministers from different Castes should have been picked from Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress Party has NO Committed Votes of any Caste, in Uttar Pradesh.

Without the Vote Base of any Caste, it is impossible for the Congress Candidates to mobilise the more than 30% votes needed, to win in a 4 Way Contest.

The Central Government has also NOT taken up any Major Infrastructure Projects in Uttar Pradesh, in these 8 Years.

Sonia and Rahul have wasted the Central Government, for 8 years.

It is too Late, NOW , to influence the voters, just 5 months before the Elections.

THREE FACTORS DEFEATING CONGRESS

Sonia and Rahul have to Rectify Three Factors, before even attempting to Campaign in Uttar Pradesh.

Sonia and Rahul Campaigning, without solving the Three Factors, will ONLY repel more and more Voters, away from the Congress Party.

The Congress Party is Losing Uttar Pradesh, because of the under analysed THREE FACTORS.

FACTOR ONE: MANMOHAN SCAMS COLLAPSE CONG

There is a Revulsion against the Congress Party across the State because of the Stink of the Series of Huge Scams and the attempt to brazenly Cover-Up these Scams instead of recovering the Loot.

The 1 lakh Crores Hasan Ali Scam, the 1.5 Lakh Crores Commonwealth Games Scam, the 1.76 Lakh Crores Spectrum Scam, the 2 Lakh Crores S-Band ISRO-Space-DEVAS Scam and the Manmohan Government’s scandalous attitude in all these Scams is hurting the Congress Party.

The shameless Cover-Up of these Scams, to protect the Big Scamsters, makes the Congress Party Stink of Scams.

The Figure of 1.76 Crores Loot in the 2G Spectrum Scam, has got fixed in the Brain of Every Voter.

The Tamilnadu Results are a Clear indication of the impact of the Scam Stink.

Voters are convinced, that the Congress led Central Government is protecting the Scamsters, in All the Scams and is not recovering the Lakhs of Crores of Loot.

The Voters are convinced that the Manmohan Government is shielding the corrupt and NOT recovering the Lakhs of Crores, looted in the Mega-Scams.

The failure of the Manmohan Government to quickly arrest the Scamsters, has caused the suffocating Scam Stink to blow against the Congress Party, Stinking across Uttar Pradesh.

The Scam stink will murder the Congress Party in the 2012 Assembly Elections.

Voters of Uttar Pradesh are refusing to trust the Congress Party, with the Opportunity to Govern Uttar Pradesh, because the Manmohan Government is protecting the Spectrum- CWG Scamsters.

The Anti-Corruption Movement by Anna Hazare has made more than 50% of the Congress Voters turn against the Congress Party, because of the rottenly Corrupt Manmohan Government.

FACTOR TWO: MANMOHAN’S HIGH PRICES KILLS CONG

The Highly Unpopular Central Government, is killing the Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh, as it did in Bihar .

Voters are cursing the Congress Party, for allowing the Manmohan Government to continue to inflict High Prices.

There has been a 300% Increase in Prices, of Daily Use Commodities, in the 8 Years of the failed Manmohan Mis-Governance.

The repeated Hike in Petrol and Diesel Prices, is making it impossible for the Working Classes and their families, to find the Money for the Basic Expenses of the Family.

Ordinary Voters are experiencing the “Impossible to manage Expenditure”, situation in Every Home, with Incomes being stagnant and expenditure increasing.

The Youth are angry, that Unemployment is at a Never Before High.

The Congress Party has also not channeled any Huge Infrastructure Projects. Thus there is No generation of Incomes and Employment Opportunities for the locals.

The Manmohan Government is perceived as a Cruel Devil by voters burdened with High Prices. Hence the Uttar Pradesh Voters are angry enough against the Manmohan Government’s High Prices, to vote in a Wave, against the Congress Party.

FACTOR THREE: CONGRESS LACKS "CM" MA SCOT

Sonia and Rahul have Not learnt any lessons from the Bihar Wipe-Out.

The Voters will Not Vote in a Vacuum, for the Congress Party, which has no Credible Chief Minister Candidate.

The pathetic Failure of the Sonia-Rahul Leadership, to create a viable Chief Ministerial Candidate, is causing the Congress Collapse in Uttar Pradesh.

Voters do not want crazy Advertisement Campaigns and Empty Slogans.

Voters want the Congress Party to project the “Leader” who will be the Chief Minister.

The Congress Party needs the Chief Minister Candidate, who will be perceived to be capable of providing better Governance, than the Corrupt Mascots of the Other Parties.

The Voters of Uttar Pradesh want to know, as to who will Govern Uttar Pradesh, if the Congress Party is given the Votes.

The Uttar Pradesh Voters are rejecting the incorrigible Congress Party, because it has No “Chief Ministerial” State Leader with connectivity with the Voters.

CONGRESS MIRACLE

If the Congress Party Replaces the Failed Manmohan Singh with a Clean and Voters’ Sensitive Prime Minister, drops all the Central Ministers accused of Corruption and Replaces the Corrupt Sheila Dikshit with a Clean Chief Minister, then the Anti Corruption Voters might do a Rethink to swing towards the Sonia-Rahul Congress, to spring a Huge Surprise in Uttar Pradesh.

Otherwise the Congress Party will not be able to win even 10% of the 403 Seats in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.

If some Incident Triggers a Statewide Communal Fire among Muslims, then Mulayam Singh Yadav might shock Everybody, by winning more seats than the BSP to get a Majority to form the Single Party Government.

If Mulayam Singh Yadav announces that he would stick to Parliament and announces his son Akhilesh Yadav as the Chief Minister Candidate then the Samajwadi Party will emerge as the Single Largest Party, to form a Coalition Government.

Otherwise, the Samajwadi Party will be in the Second Place behind the BSP.

The Anti-Corruption Vote Wave generated by Anna Hazare and the Voters Resentment against Violence is reducing the Votes for the BSP Government led by Mayawati.

As of NOW, Mayawati, will have to launch a Miraculous Huge Anti-Corruption Operation and an Anti-Goondas Operation, to impress the Uttar Pradesh Voters, to regain the Government.

The Anti-Corruption Movement led by Anna Hazare has put the focus on Narendra Modi.

The BJP Voters want India to be Governed by the Honest, Competent and Tough Narendra Modia as the Prime Minister.

If the BJP announces the Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister candidate and Announces Uma Bharti as its OBC Leader to create a OBC Wave, then the BJP will overtake all obstacles of Tactical Voting by Muslims, to defeat the BSP and the SP, to grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

Otherwise the BJP will be reduced to less than 10% of the 403 Seats in the Assembly.

The entire BJP Voters want to see Narendra Modi at the Helm of the BJP and NOT Corrupt Power Brokers of the RSS-BJP.

BIG HEADLINES

The FOUR BIG HEAD LINES of the Politicsparty.com October 2011 VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL for Uttar Pradesh are:

Hurting Narendra Modi is angering the Hindus & the OBCs to make them Hurt the BJP.

Mayawati has to Cleanse Uttar Pradesh of all the Criminal Activity and Demonstrate the ability for Honest Governance, if the BSP has to retain the Government.

Akhilesh Singh Yadav is creating an Almost Win Situation for the Samajwadi Party, but Mulayam must step aside for the Young Akhilesh Yadav or lose Uttar Pradesh again.

Continuing with the Failed Manmohan Singh is devastating the Rahul Congress.

PREDICTION

Politicsparty.comVOTERS ATTITUDE POLL for Uttar Pradesh Predicts, as of Now, in October 2011, that:

The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati is ahead of the Akhilesh Singh Yadav led Samajwadi Party, in the Electoral Race to capture the Uttar Pradesh Government, in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections.