Politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL Analysis is to understand the Uttar Pradesh Voters' Attitude as on Today, in January 2011.

16 Months from now, in May 2012, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections will be held, if Mayawati does not advance them to October 2011.

UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS' OPINION 2012

Politicsparty.com conducted a Voters Attitude Poll, in Uttar Pradesh, in all the 403 Assembly Constituencies, to understand the Voters' Mood, as of Now.

The Research Survey to gauge the Voters' Mood, was conducted over three Days during 21 January- 23 January 2011 .

100 Representative Assembly Constituencies, across the State of Uttar Pradesh were selected, based on the Results in the 2007 Assembly Elections and the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.

A Random Sample of 200 (100 Men and 100 Women) Registered voters, were interviewed in each Assembly Constituency.

The sample Interviewed for the Survey accurately represents the Socio-Economic Demographic Profile of Men and Women, in all the Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

The Voters Attitude Poll has been conducted by a Team of highly qualified specialist Psephologists, with No Political Loyalties and possessing Independent Professional Integrity.

POLLED QUESTION

The Voters in Uttar Pradesh, in this extensive Voters Attitude Poll, were asked the Question:

If the Elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly are held Today, Which Party will you vote for?

Politicsparty.com PRESENTS
UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL
21-23 JANUARY 2011

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly has 403 MLAs.

The Majority Figure is 202 MLAs.

The Politicsparty.com Uttar Pradesh Voters Attitude Poll 2011, Predicts, that the BSP Chief Minister Mayawati will become the Chief Minister again, by winning a bigger majority in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, winning 240 of the 403 Assembly Seats.

CASTE COMPOSITION OF VOTERS

The Uttar Pradesh Demographic Caste-Community Figures Are:

OTHERS: 2%.

Middle Caste: Jats 5%.

Upper Castes: 15%

(Brahmin 7%. Thakur 6%. Vysya 1%. Kayastha 1%.)

Muslims: 18%.

SC: Dalits 25%.

OBC: 35%

(OBC-Yadav 12%. OBC-Kurmi 10%. Other Backward 13%.)

Any Party that wins more than 30% of the Votes, will definitely Grab the Uttar Pradesh Government. Mayawati is the ONLY One, capable of mobilising more than 30% of the Votes.

CASTE SPREAD

The Caste Percentage, Varies in different Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

In Central and East Regions of Uttar Pradesh, there are No Jats. The Jats overall State Percentage is Low.

But in West Uttar Pradesh, in Each constituency, in about 125 Constituencies, the Vote Percentage of Jats is over 20%.

The Yadavs, Lodhas and Kurmis too have their stronghold Districts.

There are many Constituencies with Low percentage of Muslims. There are many in which the Muslim Vote percentage is High.

The Dalits are evenly spread thickly across Uttar Pradesh.

The Upper Castes are spread too thinly across the State.

MAYAWATI

The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Chief Minister Mayawati, is wining the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, with a bigger Majority than in 2007.

Muslims are voting in Big Numbers for Mayawati, in the next Assembly Elections.

Mayawati's Vote Base of Dalits is Firmly with her.

The Dalit Votes are 100% Transferable by Mayawati.

Mayawati can and will deliver 100% of the Dalit Votes, to the Candidate of any Other Caste.

Mayawati also gets the votes of the Upper Castes and OBC, in Constituencies where the BSP Candidate is from the Upper Castes and the OBC.

Mayawati is thus riding ahead of all others, to easily win the Government again.

ANTI-CRIME

Mayawati has provided a Government which has completely uprooted the Goonda Raj and Gangsterism by the Mulayam Regime.

Isolated incidents do happen but overall there is satisfaction that there is no danger in stirring out in the Night.

Ordinary Men and Women are pleased with the Mayawati regime crackdown against Musclemen, Extortionists, Kidnappers and Protection Rackets.

WINNING FORMULA

No Party can win Uttar Pradesh, with a Chief Minister Candidate from the Brahmin, Thakur, Kayastha, Vysya and Muslim Caste-Community.

The Upper Castes hate each other. The Upper castes will Not Vote for the Chief Minister candidate from the OTHER Upper caste.

The Dalits are 100% with Mayawati.

There is ONLY One Way to defeat Mayawati.

The Party must project a Credible OBC who will not be perceived as Hostile to the Upper Castes, to win Uttar Pradesh.

BJP BOUNCE

The Bharatiya Janata Party is winning more seats in 2012, than in 2007, because of the Overall Bounce for the BJP across the Hindi Belt.

The Allahabad High Court Verdict favouring the Ram Janma Bhoomi has energised Hindu Voters.

The Congress Central Government Scam Stink, is generating a wave of votes for the BJP, across the Hindi Belt, as witnessed in Bihar .

BJP FAILURE

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are OBC States.

The BJP-NDA won Bihar because it was led by the Credible OBC-Kurmi Leader Nitish Kumar.

The BJP won Madhya Pradesh because of OBC Leader Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

The BJP is Once again Losing in Uttar Pradesh, because of its Failure to project the Credible Chief Minister Candidate, who could have mobilised the OBC Votes.

ADVANI OBC MAGIC

L.K.Advani won Uttar Pradesh for the BJP, with the Magic OBC Formula.

Advani sidelined all the Upper Caste Nominees, to project the most powerful OBC Icon Kalyan Singh.

Kalyan Singh ensured that the BJP won 55-60 Lok Sabha Seats and the State Government on its own.

The BJP captured the Central Government in 1998, ONLY because Kalyan Singh delivered almost 60 Lok Sabha Seats from Uttar Pradesh.

The Vajpayee led Brahmins-Thakurs destroyed Kalyan Singh.

The forced humiliating Exit of Kalyan Singh, brought the BJP to a Low of Third Place in the Assembly and just 10 of the 80 Lok Sabha Seats.

MODI CAN SWEEP UTTAR PRADESH

The BJP can gain Seats in Uttar Pradesh, ONLY by identifying a Credible OBC Leader and projecting that Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate.

If OBC Leader Narendra Modi is Projected as the BJP's Chief Minister Candidate in Uttar Pradesh, then the BJP will win more than 200 of the 403 Assembly Seats and more than 60 of the 80 Lok Sabha Seats.

MULAYAM

The Samajwadi Party is losing Uttar Pradesh again.

Mulayam Singh Yadav has lost the Electoral Clout, because the OBC-Muslim Vote Base is no longer fixed to Mulayam.

The Muslims are divided between the SP, BSP, INC and Lok Dal.

No Dalit Votes for Mulayam.

The Kurmis have left Mulayam, to split between the BSP, INC and BJP.

The Yadavs alone cannot give Mulayam Singh Yadav too many Seats.

Mulayam Singh Yadav is losing half the Seats he won in 2007.

Mulayam has regained a lot of Lost Votes from 2009, but is still far from viability.

A Communal Polarisation of Hindus verses Muslims, can however suddenly swing the Muslims in a Wave towards Mulayam, to make him a Close Second to Mayawati, in a Hung Assembly.

Mulayam has to conjure a Miracle Strategy to re-capture the State Government. Otherwise Uttar Pradesh will be easily Lost to Mayawati, again.

THREE FACTORS DEFEATING CONGRESS

Sonia and Rahul have to Rectify Three Factors, before even attempting to Campaign in Uttar Pradesh.

Sonia and Rahul Campaigning, without dissolving the Three Factors, will ONLY repel more and more Voters, away from the Congress Party.

The Congress Party is Losing Uttar Pradesh, because of the under analysed THREE FACTORS.

FACTOR ONE: MANMOHAN SCAMS COLLAPSE CONG

There is a Revulsion against the Congress Party across the State because of the 1.5 Lakh Crores Commonwealth Games Scam and the 1.76 Lakh Crores Spectrum Scam and the shameless Cover-Up of these Scams to protect the Scamsters .

The Figure of 1.76 Crores Loot has got fixed in the Brain of Every Voter.

Voters are convinced, that the Congress led Central Government is protecting the Scamsters, in the Scams and not recovering the Lakhs of Crores of Loot.

The Voters are convinced that the Manmohan Government is shielding the corrupt and NOT recovering the Lakhs of Crores, looted in the Mega-Scams.

The failure of the Manmohan Government to arrest the Scamsters, in the Commonwealth Games Scam and the Spectrum Scam, has caused the unbreathable Scam Stink against the Congress Party, across Uttar Pradesh.

The Scam stink will murder the Congress Party in the 2012 Assembly Elections.

Voters of Uttar Pradesh are refusing to trust the Congress Party, with the Opportunity to Govern Uttar Pradesh, because the Manmohan Government is protecting the Spectrum-CWG Scamsters.

FACTOR TWO: MANMOHAN'S HIGH PRICES KILLS CONG

The Highly Unpopular Central Government is killing the Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh, as it did in Bihar .

Voters are cursing the Congress Party, for allowing the Manmohan Government to continue to inflict High Prices.

There has been a 300% Increase in Prices in the 7 Years of failed Manmohan Mis-Governance.

The repeated Hike in Petrol and Diesel Prices, is making it impossible for the Working Classes and their families to find the Money for the Basic Expenses of the Family.

Ordinary Voters are experiencing "Impossible to manage Expenditure", with Incomes being stagnant.

The Youth are angry that Unemployment is at a Never Before High.

The Congress Party has also not channeled any Huge Infrastructure Projects. Thus there is No generation of Incomes and Employment Opportunities for locals.

The Manmohan Government is perceived as a Cruel Devil by voters burdened with High Prices, thus angry enough to vote against the Congress Party.

FACTOR THREE: CONGRESS LACKS "CM" LEADER

Sonia and Rahul have Not learnt any lessons from the Bihar Wipe-Out.

The Voters will Not Vote in a Vacuum, for a Party that has no Credible Chief Minister Candidate.

The pathetic Failure of the Sonia-Rahul Leadership to create a viable Chief Ministerial Candidate is causing the Congress Collapse in Uttar Pradesh.

Voters do not want crazy Advertisement Campaigns and Empty Slogans.

Voters want the Congress Party to project the "Leader" who will be the Chief Minister.

The Voters of Uttar Pradesh want to know, as to who will Govern Uttar Pradesh if the Congress Party is given the Votes.

The Uttar Pradesh Voters are rejecting the incorrigible Congress Party, because it has No "Chief Ministerial" State Leadership with connectivity with the Voters.

FINISHLINE

If the Congress Party Replaces the Failed Manmohan Singh with a Popular-Effective-Voters' Sensitive Prime Minister, then the Uttar Pradesh Voters might Vote in a Wave for the Sonia-Rahul Congress.

If the BJP finds a Miracle OBC Leader to create a Wave then BJP will overtake all obstacles of Tactical Voting by Muslims, to grab the State Government.

If some Incident Triggers a Statewide Communal Fire among Muslims, then Mulayam Singh Yadav might shock Everybody, by grabbing the Government.

In the absence of the Above THREE Happenings, the Bahujan Samaj Party will win the Majority in the Assembly, to Once Again Capture the Uttar Pradesh State Government.

PREDICTION

Politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL Predicts, as of Now, that:

Bahujan Samaj Party President Mayawati will Once Again be the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister, of the Majority Government, after the 2012 Assembly Elections.

( Politicsparty.com Has No Political Loyalties

and is Always committed to the Truth. )