VOTERS' MOOD, NOW

Politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL was held, to understand the Uttar Pradesh Voters' Attitude as on 1 September 2011 .

6 Months from now, in March 2012, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections will be held.

UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS' OPINION 2012

Politicsparty.com conducted a Voters Attitude Poll, in Uttar Pradesh, to understand the Voters' Mood, in all the 403 Assembly Constituencies, as of Now.

The Politicsparty.com Research Survey to gauge the Voters’ Mood, was conducted on 1 September 2011 .

100 Representative Assembly Constituencies, across the State of Uttar Pradesh were selected, based on the Results in the 2007 Assembly Elections and the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.

A Random Sample of 200 (100 Men and 100 Women) Registered voters, were interviewed, in each Assembly Constituency.

The sample Interviewed for the Politics party .com Survey, accurately represents the Socio-Economic Demographic Profile of Men and Women, in all the Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

The Politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll in Uttar Pradesh, has been conducted by a Team of highly qualified specialist Psephologists with No Connectivity in Uttar Pradesh, with No Political Loyalties, Independent and possessing Professional Integrity.

POLLED QUESTION

The Voters in Uttar Pradesh, in this extensive Politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll, on 1 September 2011 , were asked the Question:

If the Elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly are held Today, Which Party will you vote for, if Uma Bharti is the BJP’s Chief Minister Candidate?

Politicsparty.com PRESENTS
UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL
2 SEPTEMBER 2011

The Uttar Pradesh Assembly has 403 MLAs.

The Majority Figure is 202 MLAs.

The Politicsparty.com Uttar Pradesh Voters Attitude Poll 2011, Predicts, that, the BJP Chief Minister Candidate Uma Bharti will become the Chief Minister, with the BJP winning a majority in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections, winning 202 of the 403 Assembly Seats.

CASTE COMPOSITION OF VOTERS

The Uttar Pradesh Demographic Caste-Community Figures Are:

Middle Caste: Jats 5%.

Upper Castes: 12%

(Brahmin 6%. Thakur 5%. Vysya 1%.)

Muslims: 18%.

SC: Dalits 25%.

OBC: 40%

(OBC-Yadav 12%. OBC-Kurmi 9%. OBC-Lodh 9%. Other Backward 10%.)

The Backward Classes constitute the Biggest Voting Block in Uttar Pradesh.

Since the Dalits are 100% with Mayawati, any Party that wants to defeat the BSP, to grab the Government, must woo the Backward Caste Votes in Uttar Pradesh.

WINNING PERCENTAGE

Any Party that wins more than 30% of the Votes, in a Four Party Contest, will definitely Grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

The BJP is the ONLY Party mobilising more than 30% of the Votes, as of Now, because of the Swing of the OBC Votes due to the Projection of Lodh Nominee Uma Bharti.

CASTE SPREAD

The Caste Percentage, Varies in different Regions of Uttar Pradesh.

In Central and East Regions of Uttar Pradesh, there are No Jats. The Jats overall State Percentage is Low.

But in West Uttar Pradesh, in Each Assembly Constituency, in about 100 Constituencies, the Vote Percentage of Jats is over 20%.

The Yadavs, Lodhas and Kurmis too have their stronghold Districts.

There are many Constituencies with Low percentage of Muslims. There are many in which the Muslim Vote percentage is High.

The Dalits are evenly spread, thickly, about 25% in Each Assembly Constituency, across Uttar Pradesh.

The Upper Castes are spread too thinly across the State.

MAYAWATI

The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Chief Minister Mayawati, is losing the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections.

Mayawati is Now completely unpopular among the Non-Dalit Voters. This is causing the defeat of the Mayawati Government.

Mayawati's Vote Base of Dalits is Firmly with her.

The Dalit Votes are 100% Transferable by Mayawati.

Mayawati can and will deliver 100% of the Dalit Votes, to the BSP Candidate of any Other Caste.

LOSING FORMULA

No Party can win Uttar Pradesh, with a Chief Minister Candidate from the Brahmin, Thakur, Kayastha, Vysya and Muslim Caste-Community.

The Upper Castes hate each other. The Upper castes will Not Vote for the Chief Minister candidate from the OTHER Upper caste.

The Dalits are 100% with Mayawati.

WINNING FORMULA

There is ONLY One Way to win the Uttar Pradesh Government.

The challenging Party must project a Credible OBC, who will not be perceived as Hostile to the Upper Castes, to win Uttar Pradesh.

PUNCTURED OBC LEADERS

Kalyan Singh has lost steam, by leaving the BJP, identifying with Mulayam and then returning to the BJP.

Mulayam has also lost the Bondage with the Muslims by flirting with Kalyan Singh.

Mulayam has lost the Electoral Clout by identifying with the scandalous Types like Amitabh Bachchan, Rich Businesmen and bed hopping Film Actresses.

Mulayam has recovered some ground after dumping his Pimp-Power Broker, but the damage done to the Mulayam Credibility has not yet been repaired.

CREDIBLE OBC CHALLENGER

Only if a Credible OBC Leader is projected as the Chief Minister Candidate, by the Congress Party, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party then there could be a serious challenge to Mayawati.

Mayawati is invincible in Uttar Pradesh, if the Opposing Party does not project a Credible-Popular OBC Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate.

BJP BOUNCE

The Bharatiya Janata Party is winning more seats in 2012, than in 2007, because of the Overall Bounce for the BJP across the Hindi Belt.

The Bihar Result is helping the BJP.

Hindu Voters in Uttar Pradesh, now believe that the BJP will Build the Ram Temple, if the BJP wins the Central Government.

The Allahabad High Court Verdict favouring the Ram Janma Bhoomi has activated Hindu Voters.

The Supreme Court Stay on the Allahabad High Court Verdict but continuing the Pooja for God Ram at Ayodhya has energised Hindus.

The Congress Central Government Scams Stink, is generating a wave of votes for the BJP, across the Hindi Belt.

ANNA HAZARE

The Anti-Corruption Movement is swinging the Votes away from the INC, BSP and SP towards the BJP in Huge Numbers.

The Anna Hazare Movement has collapsed the INC, BSP and SP Credibility because they are perceived to be corrupt.

The BJP, benefiting from the Anna Hazare Anti-Corruption Movement, is thus getting enough votes to win a Majority and Capture the Government.

BJP OBC BASE

Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are OBC States.

The BJP-NDA won Bihar because it was led by the Credible OBC-Kurmi Leader Nitish Kumar, the huge Hindu Bounce for the BJP and the Muslims voting for both the JD-Nitish and the BJP Candidates.

The BJP won Madhya Pradesh because of OBC Leader Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

The BJP is Now winning in Uttar Pradesh, because of its attempt to project as the Credible OBC Chief Minister Candidate, Uma Bharti the former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister, whose candidature is mobilising the Non-Yadav OBC Votes.

ADVANI OBC MAGIC

L.K.Advani won Uttar Pradesh for the BJP, with the Magic OBC Formula.

Advani sidelined all the Upper Caste Nominees, to project the most powerful OBC Icon Kalyan Singh.

Kalyan Singh ensured that the BJP won 55-60 Lok Sabha Seats and the State Government on its own.

The BJP captured the Central Government in 1998, ONLY because Kalyan Singh delivered almost 60 Lok Sabha Seats from Uttar Pradesh.

The Vajpayee led Brahmins-Thakurs destroyed Kalyan Singh.

The forced humiliating Exit of Kalyan Singh, brought the BJP to a Low of Third Place in the Assembly and just 10 of the 80 Lok Sabha Seats.

MODI TYPE OBC LEADER CAN WIN U.P. FOR BJP

The BJP can gain Seats in Uttar Pradesh, ONLY by identifying a Credible OBC Leader and projecting that Leader as the Chief Minister Candidate.

If an OBC Leader like Narendra Modi is Projected as the BJP’s Chief Minister Candidate in Uttar Pradesh, then the BJP will win more than 200 of the 403 Assembly Seats and more than 60 of the 80 Lok Sabha Seats.

The BJP lost the earlier Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh, because it did not create the OBC Icon like Narendra Modi of Gujarat or Shivraj Singh Chauhan of Madhya Pradesh.

NITISH MAGIC

The more that Nitish Kumar campaigns for the BJP, the more number of seats will be lost by Mulayam to the BJP.

Nitish, after the recent Bihar Victory, has become a Huge Icon for the, Kurmis and other Non-Yadav OBCs in Uttar Pradesh.

OBC UMA WILL GOVT FOR BJP

If OBC Leader Uma Bharti is made a Voter from Uttar Pradesh and projected as the BJP’s OBC Chief Minister Candidate, with aggressive campaigning by the Bihar Chief Minister Kurmi Nitish Kumar, then the BJP will win a Majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.

The BJP with Uma Bharti projected by Nitish Kumar, will win the Majority of the 403 Assembly Seats, to defeat Mayawati’s BSP, wipe out Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Congress Party, to grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

MULAYAM

The Samajwadi Party is losing Uttar Pradesh again.

Nitish Kumar campaigning for the BJP will evaporate most of Mulayam's OBC Votes.

Mulayam Singh Yadav has lost the Electoral Clout, because the OBC-Muslim Vote Base is no longer fixed to Mulayam.

The Muslims are divided between the SP, BSP, INC and Lok Dal.

No Dalit Votes for Mulayam.

The Kurmis have left Mulayam, to split between the BSP, INC and BJP.

The Yadavs alone, cannot give Mulayam Singh Yadav too many Seats.

Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, has not regained the Credibility to impress the Voters of Uttar Pradesh.

MULAYAM

Mulayam has regained a lot of Lost Votes from 2009, but is still far from viability.

A Communal Polarisation of Hindus verses Muslims, can however suddenly swing the Muslims in a Wave towards Mulayam, to make the Samajwadi Party a Close Second to the winning BJP.

Mulayam has to conjure a Miracle Strategy to Communalise the Electoral Scenario, to try to re-capture the State Government.

Otherwise Uttar Pradesh will be easily Lost to the BJP.

MULAYAM MUST RETIRE

Mulayam must retire from the Chief Ministerial Race.

Mulayam must inject a younger Yadav as the Chief Minister Candidate.

Mulayam must project his son Akhilesh Yadav or One of his brothers, as the Chief Minister Candidate.

The Samajwadi Party led by a Young Yadav, will win almost 150 Assembly Seats, reducing the BJP and BSP Tally to create a Hung Assembly Situation.

STOP PARACHUTING

Sonia and Rahul must realise that the Congress Party is NOT at all Electorally viable, in more than 300 of the 403 Constituencies.

Rahul Parachuting from New Delhi for a Demonstration, Protest and a Media Driven Exercise for a few days, will not sustain the Appeal.

The Congress Party needs a viable Candidate in Each Constituency, living in the Constituency, attending to Public Grievances Daily and spending Resources to maintain a work force.

Flying in from New Delhi for a few days, then disappearing, will not glue the voters to the Congress Party.

WASTED CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Sonia and Rahul have wasted almost 8 years of Central Government, by NOT building Caste Leaders, to woo voters.

A dozen Union Ministers from different Castes should have been picked from Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress Party has NO Committed Votes of any Caste, in Uttar Pradesh.

Without the Vote Base of any Caste, it is impossible for the Congress Candidates to mobilise the more than 30% votes needed, to win in a 4 Way Contest.

The Central Government has also NOT taken up any Major Infrastructure Projects in Uttar Pradesh, in these 8 Years.

Sonia and Rahul have wasted the Central Government, for 8 years.

It is too Late, NOW, to influence the voters, just 6 months before the Elections.

THREE FACTORS DEFEATING CONGRESS

Sonia and Rahul have to Rectify Three Factors, before even attempting to Campaign in Uttar Pradesh.

Sonia and Rahul Campaigning, without solving the Three Factors, will ONLY repel more and more Voters, away from the Congress Party.

The Congress Party is Losing Uttar Pradesh, because of the under analysed THREE FACTORS.

FACTOR ONE: MANMOHAN SCAMS COLLAPSE CONG

There is a Revulsion against the Congress Party across the State because of the Stink of the Series of Huge Scams and the attempt to brazenly Cover-Up these Scams instead of recovering the Loot.

The 1 lakh Crores Hasan Ali Scam, the 1.5 Lakh Crores Commonwealth Games Scam, the 1.76 Lakh Crores Spectrum Scam, the 2 Lakh Crores S-Band ISRO-Space-DEVAS Scam and the Manmohan Government’s scandalous attitude in all these Scams is hurting the Congress Party.

The shameless Cover-Up of these Scams, to protect the Big Scamsters,makes the Congress Party Stink of Scams.

The Figure of 1.76 Crores Loot in the 2G Spectrum Scam, has got fixed in the Brain of Every Voter.

The Tamilnadu Results are a Clear indication of the impact of the Scam Stink.

Voters are convinced, that the Congress led Central Government is protecting the Scamsters, in the Scams and not recovering the Lakhs of Crores of Loot.

The Voters are convinced that the Manmohan Government is shielding the corrupt and NOT recovering the Lakhs of Crores, looted in the Mega-Scams.

The failure of the Manmohan Government to quickly arrest the Scamsters, in the Hasan Ali Money Laundering Scam, the Commonwealth Games Scam and the Spectrum Scam, has caused the suffocating Scam Stink against the Congress Party, Stink across Uttar Pradesh.

The Scam stink will murder the Congress Party in the 2012 Assembly Elections.

Voters of Uttar Pradesh are refusing to trust the Congress Party, with the Opportunity to Govern Uttar Pradesh, because the Manmohan Government is protecting the Spectrum-CWG Scamsters.

The Anti-Corruption Movement by Anna Hazare has made more than 50% of the Congress Voters turn against the Congress Party, because of the rottenly Corrupt Manmohan Government.

FACTOR TWO: MANMOHAN'S HIGH PRICES KILLS CONG

The Highly Unpopular Central Government, is killing the Congress Party in Uttar Pradesh, as it did in Bihar .

Voters are cursing the Congress Party, for allowing the Manmohan Government to continue to inflict High Prices.

There has been a 300% Increase in Prices, of Daily Use Commodities, in the 8 Years of the failed Manmohan Mis-Governance.

The repeated Hike in Petrol and Diesel Prices, is making it impossible for the Working Classes and their families, to find the Money for the Basic Expenses of the Family.

Ordinary Voters are experiencing the "Impossible to manage Expenditure", situation in Every Home, with Incomes being stagnant and expenditure increasing.

The Youth are angry, that Unemployment is at a Never Before High.

The Congress Party has also not channeled any Huge Infrastructure Projects. Thus there is No generation of Incomes and Employment Opportunities for the locals.

The Manmohan Government is perceived as a Cruel Devil by voters burdened with High Prices. Hence the Uttar Pradesh Voters are angry enough against the Manmohan Government's High Prices, to vote in a Wave, against the Congress Party.

FACTOR THREE: CONGRESS LACKS "CM" MASCOT

Sonia and Rahul have Not learnt any lessons from the Bihar Wipe-Out.

The Voters will Not Vote in a Vacuum, for the Congress Party, that has no Credible Chief Minister Candidate.

The pathetic Failure of the Sonia-Rahul Leadership, to create a viable Chief Ministerial Candidate, is causing the Congress Collapse in Uttar Pradesh.

Voters do not want crazy Advertisement Campaigns and Empty Slogans.

Voters want the Congress Party to project the "Leader" who will be the Chief Minister.

The Congress Party needs the Chief Minister Candidate, who will be perceived to be capable of providing better Governance, than the Mascots of the Other Parties.

The Voters of Uttar Pradesh want to know, as to who will Govern Uttar Pradesh, if the Congress Party is given the Votes.

The Uttar Pradesh Voters are rejecting the incorrigible Congress Party, because it has No "Chief Ministerial" State Leader with connectivity with the Voters.

CONGRESS MIRACLE

If the Congress Party Replaces the Failed Manmohan Singh with a Clean and Voters' Sensitive Prime Minister, drops all the Central Ministers accused of Corruption and Replaces the Corrupt Sheila Dikshit with a Clean Chief Minister then the Anti Corruption Voters might do a Rethink to swing towards the Sonia-Rahul Congress, to emerge as the Second Largest Party.

Otherwise the Congress Party will not be able to cross the Single Digit Figure in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.

BJP MIRACLE

If the BJP sustains Uma Bharti as its Miracle OBC Leader to create a OBC Wave, then BJP will overtake all obstacles of Tactical Voting by Muslims, to defeat the BSP and will grab the Uttar Pradesh Government.

Otherwise the BJP will hover around the Three Digit Figure of 100 MLAs.

MULAYAM MIRACLE

If some Incident Triggers a Statewide Communal Fire among Muslims, then Mulayam Singh Yadav might shock Everybody, by winning more seats than the BSP and the BJP, to create a Hung Assembly.

Otherwise, the Samajwadi Party will be fighting for the Second Place with the BSP, both, far behind the winner BJP.

MAYAWATI MIRACLE

The Anti-Corruption Vote Wave generated by Anna Hazare and the choice of OBC Leader Uma Bharti as the Chief Minister Candidate are miraculously combining to defeat the BSP Government led by Mayawati.

As of NOW, Mayawati, will have to launch a Miraculous Huge Anti-Corruption Operation to impress the Uttar Pradesh Voters, to regain the Government.

The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati, is losing the Uttar Pradesh State Government, because of the Ant-Corruption Vote Wave.

PREDICTION

Politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL for Uttar Pradesh Predicts, as of Now, in September 2011, that:

The Bharatiya Janata Party led by OBC Leader Uma Bharti is winning the Uttar Pradesh Government, after the 2012 Assembly Elections, by winning 202 of the 403 Assembly Constituencies.

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