PSEPHOLOGY CAN GO WRONG

The Uttar Pradesh Election Scenario Heat will Formally Begin, ONLY after, the First Phase of Polling on 4 February Nominations are Completed on 17 January.

It is easier to Predict Correctly the Winners, ONLY after the Candidates File their Nominations.

Predictions made before the Candidates are Finalised, are made on the assumption of the Party Strength in Each Constituency.

Psephology of Leading Psephologist can go wrong!  

A Wrong Candidate can make the Party lose a Sure Winning Seat.

ALL ARE CORRUPT

Each of the Four Contending Political Parties is More Corrupt than the Other Three.

The Four Parties have proved their Greed for Corruption, whenever they were in Government.

The Uttar Pradesh Voters have No Choice on the Issue of Corruption.  

The Voters have to Choicelessly, Pick One of the Four Looters, who will devour the Wealth of the Government.

CASTE IS WIN FACTOR

The Caste of the Candidate, will be decisive in determining the victory of the Party in Each Constituency.

The Caste of the Candidate, in Each Constituency and the Caste of all the Other Three Opposing Candidates, will greatly influence the voting attitude of the Voters of Various Castes.

YADAV PANIC

Mulayam’s Son Akhilesh Yadav today hinted at a Post-Poll Coalition with Congress Party and Lok Dal to Capture the Uttar Pradesh Government, in the Scenario of a Hung Assembly, with No Party getting the Majority in the 403 MLAs Assembly.  

The Yadav Clan has Obviously Panicked, too early, before the Elections.  

The Panic will further erode the Muslim Support for the Samajwadi Party.  

The Mulayam Outfit will thus damage itself with such Scared Chatter.

Mulayam will Fall from a Probable 140 Wins to less than 70 Wins.

The Samajwadi Party has become highly insecure, nervous and scared at the Split of Muslim Votes.

The Samajwadi party Bosses expected 100% Voting by Yadavs and Muslims.

That is Not happening. Why?
 

RAHUL PICNIC

The aggressive Campaign by Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi across Uttar Pradesh, has shifted a number of Muslim Voters, away from the Samajwadi Party, to the Congress Party.

Rahul has thus Bombed the 100% Voting by Muslims, for the Samajwadi Party.

The Rahul Picnic in Mulayam Muslim Ground has caused a 3 ways Split of Muslims. 45% for Mulayam. 35% for Rahul. 20% for Mayawati.

The Muslim Split will make the Samajwadi Party lose Half of the 140 Seats it could have won, if the Muslims had not Split.

The Rahul Picnic with Muslims has infected a Panic in Mulayam.
 

MULAYAM-SONIA COALITION

The Ideal Situation for the Congress Party would be, that the Anti-Mayawati Forces win more than the Majority of 202 Assembly Seats.

If Samajwadi, Congress, Lok Dal and Independents get 202 Wins, then they can form the Post-Poll Coalition Government.  

Mulayam can be Chief Minister. Congress Chap can be Deputy Chief Minister.
 

SAFETY OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

The above expectation is based on the Hope, that the Voters of Uttar Pradesh are disgusted with Mayawati’s Corrupt Mis-Governance and prefer the Mulayam-Manmohan Corruption Coalition.

8 of Mulayam MPs, including his Brother and Son, can be Ministers in the Congress Party led Central Government.

The 22 Lok Sabha MPs of Mulayam will support the Congress Party, so that the Central Government will be safe until 2014.

SIDE EFFECT

On the Contrary, the Split in Muslim Votes might help Mayawati, in a Bonus Side Effect.

BSP is the Number Two Party against the Samajwadi Party, in about 100 Constituencies, trailing by about 5000 Votes.

The BJP is the Number Two party against the Samajwadi Party, in about 50 Constituencies, trailing by about 5000 Votes.

If 5000 Muslims desert Samajwadi Party, to Vote for Congress Party, then the BSP and the BJP Candidate will win all the Seats.

The Split in Muslim Votes will surely increase the BSP and the BJP wins.
 

LOTUS MAYA

If Mayawati wins about 200 Seats on her own, then the BSP will Form a Single Party Majority Government.  

If Mayawati wins above 175 Seats out of 403, then the BSP will form a Government on its own, with some Independents.

If the BSP and BJP together have more than 202 Wins, then they will form a Coalition Government. Mayawati wiil be the Chief Minister and a BJP Chap will be the Deputy Chief Minister.  

In the Lok Sabha Elections, the BSP and the BJP will Contest 40 Lok Sabha Seats, in a Coalition.

The BJP Plus BSP Votes will be More than 50% in Each constituency.

The BJP-BSP Coalition will win all the 80 Lok Sabha Seats in Uttar Pradesh.
 

NOBODY GRABS GOVERNMENT

There Could be One Peculiar Scenario.

The BJP Plus BSP Total Number of wins could be Less than the Majority Figure of 202. The BSP & BJP Cannot then, grab the State Government.

The Congress Party, Lok Dal and Samajwadi Party might Total a Figure, which would be less than the Majority Figure of 202 MLAs.  

The Congress Party and the Samajwadi Party cannot then, form the Post-Poll Coalition Government.

PRESIDENT'S RULE

President’s Rule will be Imposed for 6 Months.

The Assembly would be Dissolved after 6 Months.  

Fresh Assembly Elections would be held in 2012 End.

President's Rule Will Be Rahul Rule, through the Rahul Loyalist, as the Governor.

FINISHLINE

politicsparty.com will Predict the Uttar Pradesh Results Closer to 20 January after the Nominations for the First Phase are Completed.

Until then, let us allow Rahul, Mulayam, Mayawati and Sanjay Joshi to Dream, about their Grab of the Uttar Pradesh Government!