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POLL TREND
The Actual Trend of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly 2012 Elections Results, will be known, ONLY after Analysing the Voting attitude of the Voters, in the First Phase of Polling on 8 February 2012 .
Today we are Presenting the Poll-Eve Preview!
VOTERS’ MOOD, KEEPS CHANGING
Politics and Voters Attitude is Not Static. They are highly Dynamic.
Every Decision that any Party or Leader utters, either increases the Votes OR reduces the Votes.
Every Government Policy and Party Strategy results in the Rise OR Fall of Voters’ Support!
There is Need therefore to Measure frequently, the Changed Mood among the Voters.
2007
In 2007 it was almost a Straight Fight Fight between Mulayam and Mayawati.
The BJP and the Congress Party were not viable in 300 of the 403 Seats.
BSP won a Majority.
FOUR POLES
In 2012, in Uttar Pradesh, it is a Keen Four Way Contest.
Indian National Congress-Rashtriya Lok Dal Alliance. Led by General Secretary Rahul Gandhi and Union Minister Ajit Singh.
Bahujan Samaj Party. Led by Chief Minister Mayawati.
Samajwadi Party. Led by Former Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav.
Bharatiya Janata Party. Led by Former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Uma Bharti who has Now migrated to the Uttar Pradesh Portion of Bundelkhand. Bundelkhand is spread out in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
PREDICTION IMPOSSIBLE
In this Four Poles Contest, guessing the winner, is an almost Impossible Task.
If Samajwadi Party loses 15,000 Muslim Votes to the Congress Party Candidate, then the Seat will be won, by who ever from among the BSP & BJP, was the Number Two Party in the Constituency.
In a Four Poles Contest, the Consolidation of the Dalit Votes, the tactical voting by Jats & Other castes for caste candidates, the Split of Muslim Votes and the Reaction of the OBC Votes and such phenomena will create shock Losers and surprise winners.
VOTERS ATTITUDE NOW
The Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections Multi-Phases Process will begin on 8 February 2012 and End on 3 March 2012 .
Results will be Counted on 6 March 2012 .
politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL was held, to understand the Uttar Pradesh Voters’ Attitude NOW.
UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS’ OPINION
politicsparty.com conducted a Voters Attitude Poll, in Uttar Pradesh, to understand the Voters’ Mood, in all the 403 Assembly Constituencies, as of Now.
The politicsparty.com Research Survey to gauge the Voters’ Mood, was conducted on 6 February 2012 .
100 Representative Assembly Constituencies, across the State of Uttar Pradesh were selected, based on the Results in the 2007 Assembly Elections and the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections.
A Random Sample of 200 (100 Men and 100 Women) Registered voters, were interviewed, in each Assembly Constituency.
The sample Interviewed for the politicsparty.com Survey accurately represents the Socio-Economic Demographic Profile of Men and Women, in all the Regions of Uttar Pradesh.
The politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll in Uttar Pradesh, has been conducted by a Team of highly qualified specialist Psephologists, with No Connectivity in Uttar Pradesh, with No Political Loyalties, Independent and possessing Professional Integrity.
POLLED QUESTION
The Voters in Uttar Pradesh, in this extensive politicsparty.com Voters Attitude Poll, on 6 February 2012 , were asked the Question:
If the Elections to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly are held Today, Which Party will you Vote for?
Politicsparty.com PRESENTS
UTTAR PRADESH VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL
7 FEBRUARY 2012
| NAME OF PARTY |
2007 |
2012 FEB PREDICTION |
| |
SEATS WON |
SEATS |
VOTES% |
| Bahujan Samaj Party |
207 |
120 MLAs |
26% |
| Bharatiya Janata Party |
51 |
115 MLAs |
23% |
| Samajwadi Party |
97 |
110 MLAs |
24% |
| Rashtriya Lok Dal |
10 |
22 MLAs |
4% |
| Indian National Congress |
22 |
21 MLAs |
13% |
| Others |
15 |
15 MLAs |
10% |
The Uttar Pradesh Assembly has 403 MLAs.
The Majority Figure is 202 MLAs.
MAYA LOSES NON-DALIT VOTES
The Bahujan Samaj Party is getting the 100% support of all the Dalit Voters, across the State.
The Non-Dalit Voters who voted for the BSP in 2007, are not voting for the BSP, NOW.
The Non-Dalit Voters are Voting for the BSP, wherever there is a Non-Dalit Candidate of the BSP, who seems likely to win.
The Evaporation of the Non-Dalit Votes, is felling the BSP, below the Majority Figure of 202 MLAs in the 403 MLAs Assembly.
MUSLIM SPLIT
The Muslims are NOT Voting 100% for the Samajwadi Party.
Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi’s aggressive Campaign, has weaned away many Muslim voters from Mulayam Singh Yadav.
The Split in the Muslim Votes, is enabling the BSP to win many Seats, in which the Contest is between the SP and the BSP Candidates.
The Samajawadi Party Winnings, is thus being damaged by the Congress Party, to peg the SP at about 110 MLAs.
If On Polling Day, the Muslims swing completely in favour of the Samajwadi Party, then it will win 175 MLAs and the Congress Party will fall to a Tally below 9 MLAs.
OBC REACTION
The Largest Voting Group in Uttar Pradesh are the Hindu OBCs.
50% of the Uttar Pradesh Voters are Hindu OBCs.
There is a Huge Reaction, among Hindu OBCs, against the Congress Party, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP, for Stealing their Reservation Quota.
The OBCs are angry, that their OBC Quota has been Reduced, by Allotting 4.5% of it to Muslims.
The OBC Reaction is helping the BJP, to Overtake the Samajwadi Party, in the Number of Constituencies Won.
The Hindu OBC Reaction, against Pro-Muslim Parties, is increasing the BJP Wins, from a Low of 50 MLAs, to more than 100 MLAs.
PREDICTION
politicsparty.com VOTERS ATTITUDE POLL for Uttar Pradesh Predicts, as of Now, on 7 February 2012 , that:
The Bahujan Samaj Party led by Chief Minister Mayawati, will fall short of the Majority Figure of 202 MLAs, in the 403 MLAs Assembly, in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections.
The Prediction on who will actually form the Government, in Uttar Pradesh, after the Results are declared on 6 March 2012 , will be Explained Tomorrow!
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( politicsparty.com Has No Political Loyalties and is Always committed to the Truth.)
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