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SURVIVAL TEST FOR CM
The Karnataka BJP Chief Minister Sadananda Gowda will have to Resign, on 29 September 2011 , Results Day, for the Koppal Assembly By-Election held on 26 September 2011 , if the BJP Candidate loses.
The Karnataka BJP Chief Minister D.V.Sadananda Gowda is popularly known as the "Smiling Lotus". This is because he is always smiling, even if it is an appearance at someones’ funeral.
Sadananda Gowda will be hailed as a Big Success, if the BJP wins the Koppal Assembly Constituency, which it had lost in the 2008 Assembly Elections.
3 SCENARIOS
If the Congress Party wins Koppal, then the BJP Chief Minister will be replaced. The BJP Government will collapse within 3 months, because of several of the BJP MLAs defecting to the Congress Party.
If the JD (S) wins Koppal, the Congress Party will be completely demoralised. But the BJP Government will be safe until the 2013 Assembly Elections. The BJP will Replace Sadananda Gowda with another Leader.
If the BJP wins, then Chief Minister Sadananda Gowda will be delighted and will continue to “Smile” till the 2013 Assembly Elections.
KOPPAL HISTORY
Koppal is in the Hyderabad Karnataka Region.
Koppal Assembly Constituency was formed in 1952.
Koppal was a Congress Stronghold Seat till 1983.
Nowadays, the Party with the Better Candidate, is winning Koppal.
BJP HAD NO MAJORITY
The BJP had won ONLY 110 of the 224 Assembly Constituencies in Karnataka, in the 2008 Assembly Elections.
The BJP was 3 short of the Majority Figure of 113 MLAs.
The BJP dissidents, about 15 MLAs, were forever threatening to Topple the BJP Government of Chief Minister B.S.Yeddyurappa.
OPERATION LOTUS
The BJP Chief Minister B.S.Yeddyurappa, decided on a Unique Strategy, to increase the BJP Strength, to above the Majority mark, in the Assembly .
The BJP launched Operation Lotus.
The Operation Lotus Strategy, was to get MLAs from the Congress Party and the JD (S) to Resign, join the BJP and Re-win the Constituency, as the BJP Candidate.
The BJP thus used Operation Lotus, to Take the BJP Tally in the Assembly, from 110 MLAs to 121 MLAs.
EFFECTIVE DEFECTION
The Seat was won by the JD (S) Lingayat Candidate Karadi Sanganna in 2008.
The BJP got Karadi Sanganna to Resign and join the BJP, as part of Operation Lotus.
Karadi Sanganna is Now the BJP Candidate in the Koppal By-Election.
TRIANGULAR FIGHT
It is a Triangular Fight in Koppal.
The BJP has a Panchamshali Lingayat Candidate Karadi Sanganna.
The Congress Party has a Kuruba (OBC) Candidate Basavaraj Hitnal.
The JD (S) has a young, aggressive Reddy Lingayat Candidate Pradeep Gowda Patil.
The BJP Candidate Karadi Sanganna, though a Lingayat, is popular among the other Castes too, because of his nature of excellent public relations.
CASTE FIGURES
The Caste Composition of the 1.88 Lakh Voters of Koppal Assembly Constituency is:
Lingayats 30%. Kuruba 14%. Other BCs 14%. Madigas Dalits 10%. Telugu 9%. Nayaks 7%. Muslims 7%. Kabbera 3%. Marathas 3%. Others 3%.
The Major Sub-Caste in the Lingayats is the Panchamshali.
The Panchmashalis constitute 10% of the Toatl Voters and 33% of the Lingayat Voters.
The Other Lingayat Sub-Castes are: Madivala, Hadapada, Saadara, Shivashimpigera, Reddy Lingayat and Jangama. Each of these Sub-Castes is about 3-4% of the Toatl Voters and 10% of the Lingayat Voters.
The BJP Candidate is a Panchamashali Lingayat.
The Congress Party Candidate is a Kuruba.
The JD (S) Candidate is a Reddy Lingayat.
The BJP Lingayat Candidate has an advantage, because of the Caste Composition of the Koppal Constituency.
RULING PARTY LOSES KOPPAL
For Koppal, the By-Election itself and the Opposition party MLA resigning to join the ruling Party, are both unprecedented events.
In Koppal Assembly constituency, it is the ruling Party Candidate who invariably loses the Election. This is indicated by the Results of the past six elections.
In the 1989 Assembly elections, Mallikarjuna Divatar won as an Independent candidate, but the Congress came to Power in the State.
In 1994, Karadi Sanganna contested as an Independent Candidate and won, but the JD(S) became the ruling party.
In 1999, Sanganna contested on a JD(U) ticket, but the Congress came to power.
Sanganna contested again on a BJP ticket in 2004, but was defeated.The victorious candidate, K Basavaraj Itnal was from the Congress, and the Congress-JD(S) Coalition took over the reins of power in the State.
In 2008, Sanganna (JD-S) defeated Basavaraj Itnal (Congress). The BJP formed the Government in the State.
The Koppal voters believe that the legislators elected from the constituency have never been from the ruling Party, and hence, the constituency has not seen any major development work in the past many years.
Now, if Sanganna, who quit the JD(S) to join the ruling BJP, wins the by-poll, it will dispel the jinx.
If not, history will repeat again.
HARD CAMPAIGN
The Party Leaders of all the three Parties have campaigned vociferously.
Former BJP Chief Minister B.S.Yeddyurappa spent over 10 days in the Constituency mobilising votes for the BJP Candidate. Yeddyurappa has taken it as a Personal Prestige, to ensure the victory of the BJP Candidate.
Chief Minister Sadananda Gowda spent a Day of Campaign Meetings.
The BJP has put a Dozen Ministers incharge of the Constituency.
The JD (S) got its Deve Gowda Family to Campaign.
The Congress Party got its Central Ministers Kharge, Muniyappa, Former Union Minister D.K.Thara Devi Siddhartha, PCC President Parameshwar, Opposition Leader Sioddaramaiah and other Senior PCC Functionaries to Campaign.
COSTLY VOTES
Big Money is being spent by all the Three Parties.
The BJP is outspending the Others by 10 times.
The Poor Dalit and OBC Voters are being given 1000 Rupees per vote.
ALMOST 80% VOTING
Koppal Assembly Constituency recorded a Huge Voter Turnout.
80% of the Voters voted.
The Huge Vote Percentage should give a Big Majority to the winning Candidate.
FINISHLINE
Politicsparty.com Expects the BJP Candidate Karadi Sanganna to win the Koppal Assembly By-Election.
Chief Minister Sadananda Gowda will be strengthened by the BJP Victory in Koppal.
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